Welcome to the Wednesday edition of “Tuley’s Takes Today,” which starting this year will be where I post my popular, long-running NFL column where I give my “takes” on every game on the NFL schedule.
I’ve written it the last five seasons in VSiN’s digital online magazine, “Point Spread Weekly,” but we’re rearranged how we provide our contest to VSiN subscribers and we’re combining my weekly column into these daily columns so we can offer fresher opinions (and we’ll keep it at the bottom of our columns throughout the weekend and be able to update our recommended wagers in case there are changes in the lines due to injuries, COVID issues, weather or any other reason, including plain market movements). For the newbies joining us, I’m a self-proclaimed “dog-or-pass” bettor, so in most games I’ll be basically trying to see if I feel I’m getting enough points to take the underdog. However, I believe it should be pointed out that even though I only bet dogs, I don’t bet every dog. The “pass” part of my mantra is a valid opinion where I believe it’s best to just stay away and look for other games to bet. I’m also proud to mention that I have heard from many chalk bettors (or at least those that play far more favorites than I do) over the years that they love when I pass on a dog because they see it as a “buy sign” on the favorite because I was unable to make a case for the dog. Again, I believe that’s a valid, logical way to approach my takes on the games. Now, this Week 1 is going to have a different feel than the columns the rest of the season as these lines have been up since May and have settled for the most part (though we’ll note some exceptions in the individual games). Also, if you were reading my columns when the schedule was released, you probably remember that I only liked three opening lines: Dolphins -2.5 vs. the Patriots, Jaguars + 4.5 at the Commanders and Cowboys + 3 vs. the Buccaneers (and hopefully a lot of you bet them as we’re in great positions now whether we decided to let our bets ride since we have the best numbers or try to shoot for some “middles” or “sides”). For those who don’t know, a “middle” is when you bet both teams in a game (like -2.5 and + 3.5) and the final margin lands in the middle, so you win both bets. A “side” is when the margin lands on one of the numbers (such as -2 and + 3) and you win one bet and push the other. Since most readers aren’t in that position, we’re going to go through all the games as if we’re all just betting the games this week and looking for the best bets on the opening-weekend card. Another way this column is different than coming weeks is we’re going to rely very heavily on teasers. In fact, I already gave out several teasers on my weekly appearance on “The Greg Peterson Experience” at 9:15 p.m. PT Sunday and in the earlier versions of this column this week. I’ll cite those as we go through the games along with my Best Bet if betting ATS. And if I happen to pass, I’ll still give my “pool play” recommendations because I know a lot of readers are in pools where you have to play every game. Without further ado, here come my “takes.”THURSDAY
Bills (-2.5) at Rams The season-opener is the first of 10 – count ‘em, 10 – road favorites, the most ever in a Week 1. The defending Super Bowl champion Rams opened as a 1-point home favorites, but the Bills are the future-book fave (around 6-1) and are up to 2.5-point road chalk. It’s getting more tempting to grab the Rams as home dogs, but the sharpest play looks like it’s to tease the Rams up to + 8.5 on a 6-point teaser. I’m doing that with the other four “advantage teasers” (also known as “Wong teaser” for the old-timers) that capture the key number of 3 and 7: Ravens (-1 at Jets), Colts (-1 at Texans), Vikings (+ 8 vs. Packers) and Cowboys + 8.5 vs. Buccaneers). Best Bet: Pass, but Rams in teasers (pool play: Rams 55/45 in my rare SU and ATS contests that use Thursday night games).SUNDAY
Ravens (-7) at Jets This line opened Ravens -4.5 and climbed not only because bettors like the Ravens but also as Zach Wilson was expected to miss the opener. There’s been rumblings that he might start instead of Joe Flacco, but the line has held steady at 7, which is fine with us as it’s in teaser range. As I discussed on “The Greg Peterson Experience,” I like to group my teasers (or parlays) by starting times to resist the urge to hedge – just like I used to do with NHL 1st Period Overs for those that were part of our hot run in the winter and spring of 2019 – so the two-teamer I’m playing in the early Sunday games is Ravens -1/Colts -1. Best Bet: Pass, but Ravens in teasers (pool play: Ravens 55/45 in ATS contests – though would be 100 percent on -6.5 or + 7.5 if offered those in ATS contests – and around 80/20 in SU pools).