College basketball season is only a few more weeks away, which means it's time to start thinking about college basketball odds and the futures market for the upcoming season.
At least, that's what I told myself when I put in a note to BetMGM's data team last week when I asked for some updated numbers in the college basketball national championship odds market.'
As is often the case, I learned a few really interesting tidbits from the current market numbers at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
College Basketball National Championship betting at @BetMGM
Favorites
?? Kansas +1000
?? Duke +1300
?? Kentucky +1400Highest Ticket%
?? Kansas 16.5%
?? Michigan State (+1600) 13.2%
?? Duke 6.9%Highest Handle%
?? Kansas 18.2%
?? Purdue (+1400) 16.8%
?? Arizona (+2000) 13.6%– John Ewing (@johnewing) September 19, 2023
In case you haven't been following the numbers all summer, here's a brief summary of what you missed. After winning the national championship, UConn was priced as the opening favorite to win this upcoming season's national championship.'
However, UConn was quickly bet out of the top spot in the table – likely because the Huskies have a history of popping up and winning random championships, then retreating down into the bottom half of the AP Top 25.'
Kansas – the 2022 national champion – quickly became a +1000 favorite. And while the Jayhawks have at times shared co-favorite status with Duke, a significant 18% plurality has held behind Kansas throughout the offseason.
Kansas makes sense as a favorite. This is a blueblood program with a championship coach that regularly gets great recruits. They won it all just two seasons ago.'
However, I was surprised to see that the No. 2 target behind Kansas was a somewhat surprising candidate: Purdue.
Purdue Men's Basketball Odds for the 2024 National Championship
Purdue opened at +1800 in April, behind a handful of notable contenders – Kentucky, Arizona, UConn, Kansas, and Duke. BetMGM lowered its price to +1400 after a hot market kept hitting the gas on Purdue.
That might not sound like a big movement, but the financial subtext is pretty significant. Only 5.6% of national championship tickets were on Purdue as of Sept. 18, but a whopping 16.8% of the overall handle accounted for Purdue championship tickets.'
In other words, Purdue wasn't a hugely popular ticket to buy, but it was a favorite among bettors who wager large sums of money that move the market.'