While making the NBA playoffs – or for some teams, the play-in tournament – is always better than the alternative, two squads that did themselves no favors on the final day of the regular season were the Minnesota Timberwolves and New Orleans Pelicans.
With wins, these two teams could have secured the second seed in the Western Conference and avoided the play-in, respectively. Instead, the Wolves got routed by the Suns and the Pelicans lost big to the Lakers, setting up challenging rematches for each as the postseason begins Tuesday.
The top two seeds in each conference – the Thunder and Nuggets in the West and the Celtics and Knicks in the East – will have to wait and see which teams emerge from the play-in round to learn who their first-round opponents will be. In this betting preview, we'll cover the first games of the play-in as well as the playoff series in which the matchups are already set.
Remember, with the play-in, the loser of the 9-10 game is eliminated, while the winner goes on to face the loser of the 7-8 pairing in another win-or-go-home contest. Meanwhile, the winner of the 7-8 game advances to the playoffs as the seventh seed.
Play-In, Western Conference
Season series: 3-1 Lakers
Odds & ends: Oddsmakers perceive this as the closest matchup of the play-in round, with the Pelicans 1.5-point favorites at ESPN BET and the visiting Lakers 1-point favorites at FanDuel. And despite making New Orleans its favorite, ESPN BET is offering a moneyline of -110 on either side, so don't be surprised if Los Angeles winds up as a consensus favorite at most major betting apps by tipoff, especially considering what a “public team” the Lakers are. But as ridiculous as this sounds, the Lakers' longer-term prospects may be better served by losing to New Orleans, as it would line them up to face the West's top seed, Oklahoma City, in the first round instead of the defending champion Denver Nuggets, who seem to have Los Angeles' number.
Season series: 2-2
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Odds & ends: With identical 46-36 records and having three of their four head-to-head contests decided by a single point, the Bay Area rivals will square off in a win-or-go-home version of last season's best-of-seven first-round series, which was won by the Warriors. Oddsmakers expect a repeat of that decisive performance, with the more seasoned Warriors installed as consensus 2.5-point favorites.
Play-In, Eastern Conference
Season series: 2-2
Odds & ends: Barring a major upset by the Bulls or the Hawks against the loser of this matchup, Boston's reward for cruising to a top seed will be to play either of these two squads, who many see as the two biggest threats to the Celtics making the NBA Finals. With Joel Embiid healthy and looking great, Philly – riding an eight-game winning streak – is a consensus 4.5-point favorite to force the Heat to sweat it out against either Chicago or Atlanta.
Season series: 2-1 Bulls
Odds & ends: The only two sub-.500 teams to make the postseason, these squads have a couple things going for them. For Atlanta, it's a dynamic (if structurally flawed) backcourt in Trae Young and Dejounte Murray, while the Bulls boast one of the game's best finishers in DeMar DeRozan and play a ton of close games. Oddsmakers seem to think that will matter more in this matchup, favoring the Bulls by anywhere from 3 points at the SuperBook and Caesars to 3.5 at ESPN BET.
First Round, Western Conference
Season series: 3-0 Phoenix
Odds & ends: While they were mostly fabulous during the regular season, the Timberwolves are a historically crummy playoff team that is trying to reintegrate key big man Karl-Anthony Towns, who missed the homestretch of the campaign with an injury. Conversely, while Phoenix dealt with a slew of injuries to its big three – Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, and Kevin Durant – during the first two-thirds of the season, they're now all healthy and should be brimming with confidence heading into this matchup. ESPN BET and the SuperBook have the series at a -110 tossup on either side, while both Caesars (-120/+100) and FanDuel (-118/+100) give Phoenix a slight edge to advance.
Season series: 2-1 Clippers
Odds & ends: This matchup has no shortage of star power, with Dallas' dynamic duo of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving squaring off against four future hall-of-famers in Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, James Harden, and Russell Westbrook. And by the narrowest of margins, oddsmakers expect the Mavs to advance, with the SuperBook setting -115/+105 odds in Dallas' favor and Caesars and FanDuel seeing it as a -120/+100 proposition. Don't be surprised if this gets bet down to a pick 'em.
First Round, Eastern Conference
Season series: 4-1 Pacers
Odds & ends: Nothing would seem to favor the Bucks in this series, except for oddsmakers. Milwaukee lost the season series 4-1 to Indiana and has played sub-.500 ball since Doc Rivers took over as head coach. (Rivers is also a notorious postseason underachiever.) Still, the betting apps have Milwaukee as anywhere from a -145 (SuperBook, ESPN BET) to -165 (Caesars) favorite to gut its way into the second round.
Season series: 2-2
Odds & ends: Cleveland basically tanked its way into the four-hole in the regular season's final game to avoid the prospect of having to face the Sixers or Heat in the first round, and how disrespected the young, athletic Magic feel as a result of that maneuver may go a long way toward determining how competitive this series is. As it stands, the Cavs are seen as relatively heavy favorites (-190 at the SuperBook and ESPN BET) to survive and advance.