Youmans: My 10 betting lessons from NFL Week 12

If a sequel is made to , the movie that highlighted Kurt Warner’s rise from stocking shelves at a supermarket to becoming a Super Bowl champion, Mike White’s story might someday fit the script.

New York fans were chanting White’s name at the end of Sunday’s game after he passed for 315 yards and three touchdowns in the Jets’ 31-10 victory over the Chicago Bears. White has yet to win a playoff game, and beating the Bears is no awesome accomplishment, but he’s just getting started.

Zach Wilson is probably finished for the season. Wilson, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, was benched last week after taking no accountability for his pathetic performance in a loss at New England. Wilson’s career is not done because he’ll eventually get another shot somewhere — and he could go into next season as the Jets’ starter — but for now, he’s an afterthought.

White, who played at Western Kentucky and was a fifth-round pick by Dallas in 2018, was an afterthought most of the season and buried on the bench behind Wilson and veteran Joe Flacco. White is working on a one-year, $2.5 million contract. The key is he has had to grind for every opportunity in the league and was never handed anything.

“White came in and had a good day,” DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello said. “Wilson has not proved anything yet in the league.” Avello said his book was heavy on Jets action Sunday, but “it was nothing that was knocking us out of whack, not a lot of liability.”

In fact, only 46% of the bets and 61% of the money were on the Jets at DraftKings. Smart money was on the favorite, and dumb money was on the dog.

Ben Fawkes, VSiN’s vice president of digital content, reported that multiple bettors at Caesars sportsbooks placed wagers of $100,000 or more on the Jets at -7 and -7.5 after it was announced less than an hour before kickoff that Nathan Peterman would start at quarterback for the Bears. It was no surprise that Justin Fields was scratched with a shoulder injury, but it was surprising that Trevor Siemian wound up starting instead of Peterman. There isn’t a big difference between Siemian and Peterman, but considering the NFL’s tight relationship with sports betting companies, the Bears’ pregame quarterback circus is something that should not be happening.

The bigger story was White, and there is a big difference between White and Wilson. White completed 22 of 28 passes in the rain, wasn’t intercepted and was sacked only once. Wilson had four touchdown passes in seven starts this season, and while the Jets did go 5-2 in his starts, they were winning despite Wilson in most cases.

White is the king of New York today, but the Jets’ schedule is about to get much tougher, starting with road games at Minnesota and Buffalo. The Jets are likely headed to the playoffs, and there’s no doubt they are more dangerous dogs with White as their quarterback, so that’s one of 10 betting lessons to take away from Week 12.

  
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By VSiN