Throughout the MLB postseason, I will provide a daily breakdown summarizing my thoughts on'futures'and individual games.
Below, I will address how to handle betting on these playoff series, whether on the series'moneyline'or a game-by-game basis, while using my daily MLB Model projections.
You can find my projections for every MLB game in the'Action Network App'(on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our'Projections Hub (which you can bookmark).
You can also shop for the best lines on our'odds page.
Where can we find actionable value for the futures/world-series-odds”>World Series using my projections?
Series Moneyline Corner
First, let’s take a look at my updated projected series prices for the 2022 World Series between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Houston Astros:
After cashing an AL Pennant ticket on Houston and an NL Pennant ticket on Philadelphia, we’re in the black on postseason futures regardless of what happens to our Phillies (+4000) World Series ticket.
If you don’t have a World Series future on the Phillies, I would consider betting their current series price at +162 (38.1% implied) or better, at a two percent edge compared to my projection (40.1%).
You can find a +180 (at WynnBET) on Philadelphia if you’re interested in betting the series price before Game 1.
If you have a Phillies’ future, you may be looking to hedge that ticket before Game 1. However, if you bet that Phillies’ future for a quarter unit, there isn’t a ton of profit to secure at this stage:
Using our hedging calculator, one could turn a preseason $25 Phillies future (at +4000) into a profit of around $335 (a payout of roughly +1300).
However, you could also wait until after Game 2 to hedge Phillies’ futures. Hopefully, the Phillies can split the first two games in Houston — at worst — with Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler taking the ball.
If they win either of those two games, their series price should drop, and you’ll get a better price to hedge with the Astros; before Games 3 and 4, where Houston should have a substantial starting pitching edge.
World Series Props
In addition to the series moneyline, or the moneyline and totals for the individual games, there are numerous ways to bet the World Series from an exotic or prop perspective, including exact series outcomes, the total number of games, and series MVP.
Below I’ll detail some of my favorite prop bet markets to handicap for the 2022 World Series.
Betting Phillies in 6, or Phillies Win 4-2, as the exact result, aligns with my projection and my read on how the Phillies win the series.
As I mentioned, the Phillies are at a substantial starting pitching discrepancy in Games 4, 5, and 7; but should be able to stay competitive in Games 1, 2, 5 and 6 with Nola and Wheeler taking the ball.
Those two starters will pitch four of the first six games in the series. As a result, I’m happy to place a bet that aligns with their scheduling; and maximizes the Phillies’ win condition; since they should be fairly sizable underdogs in Game 7.
Using the above exact result projections, we can easily configure how many games the series might last.
Below are my projections, compared to the odds of the exact game at FanDuel and Over/Under splits at DraftKings:
The Over 4.5 Games (-700) is the only bet showing value in either of these markets. However, I would typically need a number closer to -614 (86% implied) to justify a wager, as compared to my projection:
Some of the series spread bets are intuitive. For example, Astros -3.5 games or Phillies-3.5 games are the same as betting those teams to win 4-0 in the exact result market.