We've already reached silly season in the Jontay Porter investigation, that time when in-the-know sources tighten their lips and wild theories as to what might have transpired get floated on social media.
Here's what we know for certain: A peculiarly large number of DraftKings bettors profited handsomely by taking the under on the lightly used Porter's individual statistical props on January 26 and March 20 after he left each game early due to the aggravation of an eye injury and an illness, respectively. These potentially compromised events triggered an integrity alert, which in turn prompted an NBA investigation, which remains ongoing.
And here's what is likely bologna: that Porter hosted a premium Discord chat where he told paid subscribers what to bet on, or that somebody bet $15,000 per leg in a six-leg parlay to pocket $1.2 million off the March 20 game. As ESPN correctly pointed out in breaking the story, legal North American sportsbooks typically cap betting limits for player props at $2,000.
But here's a valid question: Why was DraftKings even offering player props on Porter, who'd only recently cracked the fringe of Toronto's rotation on account of a rash of injuries and dashed postseason prospects? One of The Ringer's lead NBA podcasters, Kevin O'Connor, went so far as to quip Tuesday that the only reason a betting app would offer over/under props for Porter would be as “part of a sting operation to out exactly this sort of [sketchy betting] behavior.”
DraftKings did not respond to a request for comment from Sports Handle, but a handful of veteran bookmakers were kind enough to offer their thoughts.
Offer Porter props? 'Never, ever, ever'
The younger brother of Denver Nuggets starter Michael Porter Jr., Jontay has seen action in 26 games this season'while averaging 4.4 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 2.3 assists in 13.8 minutes per contest. Since starting center Jakob Poeltl went down with an injury on March 3, these averages have ticked up slightly, albeit not dramatically. At best, Porter has occasionally received the second- or third-most minutes off Toronto's bench as the Raptors' backup big man this month.
According to multiple sources that Sports Handle consulted for this story, it's not out of the ordinary for a sportsbook to offer props on a team's starters plus one or two key bench players – three at the extreme. DraftKings' own props for Tuesday's four-game slate of games landed on the conservative side of this range, with player props offered exclusively on the starters in two games and on the starters plus a pair of reserves in the other two.
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The SuperBook currently gets its player props from a third-party provider, but it was “not too long ago” that the sportsbook did this work itself, said Executive Vice President of Race & Sportsbook Operations Jay Kornegay.
“When we used to do them ourselves, we used the most popular players, usually starters, and ones that would create the most interest,” said Kornegay.
Even in an enhanced reserve role, Porter likely wouldn't pass the SuperBook’s litmus test or that of a rival sportsbook.
“We haven't offered odds on him because any of the bets we'd take would solely be from sharp guys with better info than us,” said Circa Sports Director of Operations Jeffrey Benson. “We see very little recreational write on these types of players.”
Meanwhile, Robert Kowalski, the general manager of sports betting and risk for ZenSports and the director of operations at the Book at Baldini's in Sparks, Nevada, said “never, ever, ever, ever” would Porter clear his threshold for a player he'd offer props on.
“You have to think about, ‘What is a player’s baseline?’ Why would you want to bet Jontay Porter? That’s my first question,” he said. “The second is if you want to offer up any kind of player prop, it should be on someone you think is going to be bet. Offer someone who’s averaging 20 points or 10 rebounds a game, let’s start with that. If the major stars are playing, offer up a combo prop.'
“Jontay Porter never, ever made our list of player props, and I’m glad. You’ve got to be a regular rotation guy.”