Brandon Miller is the best bet to win 2023-24 NBA Rookie of the Year
Given the hype surrounding Victor Wembanyama heading into the 2023 NBA Draft, it isn’t that surprising that the San Antonio Spurs big man is a -225 favorite to win Rookie of the Year. People are expecting Wembanyama to be a borderline All-Star right from the jump, and it’s hard to blame them considering he stands at 7-foot-4 with an 8-foot wingspan and has legitimate perimeter skills. Wembanyama also plays both ends of the floor at a high level, and there’s really no denying that he’ll one day be a two-way terror in this league — one that fully lives up to the hype. However, I’m not sure he deserves to be this big of a favorite to be the top rookie in this class.
Wembanyama’s jumper should be a weapon for him in the future, but the big man shot just 27.3% from deep in the Jeep Elite league last season. He has now shot under 30.0% from 3 in each of his four seasons as a professional basketball player. With that in mind, he might not space the floor the way people expect — at least not immediately. If that jumper isn’t working for Wembanyama, it wouldn’t be surprising if he were to struggle a bit with his efficiency as a scorer. Wembanyama is going to get pushed around inside the 3-point line, and I think he’s going to be in for a bit of a rude awakening in his first year as far as shooting percentages go.
Where I do expect an immediate impact from Wembanyama is on the defensive end. He’s a flat-out special defender right now, and his combination of size and instincts should stand out in a big way. But Rookie of the Year awards don’t always go to the guy that is impacting winning the most. This is an award that tends to go to offensive-minded players, which is why we have seen guys like Paolo Banchero, LaMelo Ball and Ja Morant winning three of the last four awards. So, I do see some value in going away from the chalk when betting this market. That’s why I love Brandon Miller as a +950 play to win.
Scoot Henderson is probably the most NBA-ready prospect in this class, but the fact that he could be playing with Damian Lillard will make it hard on him to showcase his abilities. Both of those guys are ball-dominant guards, and I just don’t think Henderson will be able to truly cook until Lillard is playing elsewhere. But there’s nobody standing in the way of Miller doing what he does best, which is scoring the basketball from the wing. The Hornets should have at least 30 minutes per game for Miller right away, and I think that will give him a chance to lead all rookies in scoring.