College Football Betting Recap For Week 6
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Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his college football Week 6 betting recap as well as his lookahead to Week 7 of college football kicking off on Thursday! What are his takeaways and look aheads from a betting perspective? Read below now!
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College Football Week 6: Betting Recap
In this edition, the first section will include my thoughts on each of the Power Five conference races. After that, I'll take a brief first look at the two games that could have a profound impact on who ends at the top of the conference standings.
THE POWER 5 CONFERENCE RACES
We're about halfway into the season, and it's time to take a look at how the conference races are shaping up. Here's my take as to who will end up in the various conference title games.
ACC Championship Lookahead
The Favorite: Florida State
Contenders: Louisville, North Carolina
Longshots: Duke, Clemson, Miami
ANALYSIS: It would be a shock if Florida State is not in the ACC title game. They've had two major scares thus far, but even one loss gets them in. Louisville avoids Florida State, Clemson and North Carolina.
A rested Pittsburgh team could be dangerous, but after that, the toughest games are home to Duke and at Miami. They get in with just one loss, and maybe even with two?
North Carolina started just as fast a year ago before imploding in November. This defense seems noticeably better.
I have them clearly rated higher than Louisville, but they have home games vs. Miami and Duke, and a few tricky road games, including one at Clemson. Does the schedule keep them out of the title game?
Duke's Power number is the same as Louisville's but the schedule is unforgiving. Clemson already has two ACC losses, but if they run the table they likely get in on tiebreakers as long as Louisville loses twice. Miami would have been higher, but not taking a knee last week vs. Georgia Tech left them little margin for error.
BOTTOM LINE: Florida State gets in, but if you find odds on Louisville to get into the title game, there could be value.
Big 12 Championship Lookahead
The Favorite: Oklahoma
Next in Line: Texas
Longshots: Kansas, Kansas State
ANALYSIS: Oklahoma is much improved defensively thus far, and even one loss should still get them into the title game. Texas is likely to join them unless Kansas St runs the table, beating Texas along the way.
Kansas is still a great story, but they already lost to Texas and the defense isn't good enough. Kansas State still has a chance, but they must beat Texas at their place to have a shot to get in.
BOTTOM LINE: If you can find a place that offers Texas and Oklahoma to rematch in the title game, that would be worth a look.
SEC Championship Lookahead
Odds-On Favorite: Georgia
East Division Longshot: Tennessee
West Division Contenders: Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M
ANALYSIS: Georgia has to go to Tennessee on 11/13. Unfortunately for Tennessee, they already lost in conference play to Florida, and have a tough SEC road schedule ahead. Even a win at Georgia likely won't be enough.
It's still a three-horse race in the SEC West, and four if you include Mississippi. A&M's schedule looks too tough to run the table. If LSU beats Alabama (road game), then at worst the Tigers will need to win in their finale hosting A&M to get in.
Just because Alabama beat A&M doesn't mean they are guaranteed the West title. The host of Tennessee is tricky, as are games at improved Kentucky and Auburn, where we know the Tigers have had some success in the series. I can't put Mississippi in the mix because they still must play at Georgia, plus play this week at a rested Auburn in addition to facing two other SEC challenges.
BOTTOM LINE: Georgia should be back, but the West race remains too close to call.
Big Ten Championship Lookahead
East Division Contenders: Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State
West Division Contenders: Wisconsin, Iowa
Longshot: Nebraska
ANALYSIS: In the East, Michigan is the deserved favorite. The game at Penn State will be tricky, and the game the very next week, also on the road (Maryland) is a bit of a trap with Ohio State next.