College Football Betting Recap For Week 11
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Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his college football Week 11 betting recap as well as his lookahead to Week 12 of college football kicking off on Tuesday! What are his takeaways and look aheads from a betting perspective? Read below now!
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What Did We Learn in College Football Week 11?
Reviewing past box scores should be something each handicapper does before moving on the next week's action.
I record data from each box score onto my individual team sheets. I chart turnovers, sacks, and run and pass figures among other things.
As I've said in the past, I also take away sacks from the rush total for each team, along with kneel downs, bad snaps, and fake punts that went awry.
That gives me more of a “true” reading on how a team matches up with its opponent in the run game. This is NOT something everyone needs to do. Just using other sources for data will give you numbers that are similar to mine.
Below are a few box scores and game nuggets that interested me from last week.
Michigan's last 32 plays were runs, and they did not have a recorded pass attempt in the 2nd half. That says more about their lack of fear regarding the Penn State offense as opposed to their personal confidence in QB McCarthy, but by doing so I think McCarthy's Heisman candidacy was rightfully downgraded.
Speaking of taking the air out of the ball, did you know that Syracuse did exactly the same thing in their 28-13 victory over Pittsburgh? Trailing 13-7 at the half, they obviously saw something that could work vs. the aggressive Panther defense. By game's end they ran for 384 yards and possessed the ball approximately 37 .5 minutes.
See the section below for more on this game.
Nebraska lost 13-10 at home to Maryland and after reviewing the game script I feel it was a deserved loss. Matt Ruhle has a reputation for making defenses better, but his offenses have struggled.
Consider this: Maryland, had a 384-269 yardage advantage and were penalized 10 times for 92 yards, to Nebraska's 1 time for 15 yards. They were also stopped on downs (4th and one) at Nebraska's 17-yard line.
I never thought I'd see this statistic, but Chip Kelly's UCLA Bruins held the ball for just 23 minutes vs. ASU. How did the Sun Devils get outgained 300 to 250 yards and posses the ball that long? Each team had one turnover.
I've said all year the ASU can be sneaky-good on defense, but with fan support wavering as it is, UCLA's recent efforts have to be considered disappointing. The game vs. rival USC is potentially a very important one for the staff.
Moving outside of the Power Five, Marshall beat Georgia Southern 38-33 but based on the stat sheet they were more in command than the final scored indicated. They led 38-26 until the last 2+ minutes despite a -2 turnover ratio and nine committed penalties.
Finally, in the unpredictable MAC, NIU led Ball State 17-10 but found a way to lose late, 20-17. At blame was a -3 turnover ratio, as Ball State scored twice in the final 3:44 of the game.