VSiN Analytics Report for Week 8
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 8. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.
NFL Odds | NFL Betting Splits | NFL Matchups
Strategies using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published in the 2023 NFL Betting Guide Part 2, Steve Makinen outlined 12 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until kickoff for best usage.
DK Betting Splits system #1: When more than 65% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 35-53 ATS (39.8%). The number for this supermajority in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO, MIAMI, JACKSONVILLE, NEW ORLEANS, DALLAS, NY JETS, PHILADELPHIA, CAROLINA, SEATTLE, BALTIMORE, DETROIT
DK Betting Splits system #2: The percentage breakdown can be expanded a bit for the number of bets. When 63%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 66-92 ATS (41.8%). The NFL is the most public of all bet-able sports. If 63%+ of the bettors at DraftKings likes a particular side, fade ’em.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY JETS, PHILADELPHIA, MINNESOTA, HOUSTON, KANSAS CITY, BALTIMORE, DETROIT
It's safe to assume you don’t want to be part of the supermajority of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers.
DraftKings bettors were at their absolute worst last season when analyzing divisional games:
DK Betting Splits system #3: In NFL divisional games of 2022, DK majority handle bettors were absolutely awful, as this majority group was just 36-64 ATS (36%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, PHILADELPHIA, GREEN BAY, KANSAS CITY
DK Betting Splits system #4: Similarly to #3 above, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game last year, this majority group was just 37-60 ATS (38.1%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, PHILADELPHIA, MINNESOTA, KANSAS CITY
DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority handle and number of bets were on road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups were just 36-52 ATS (40.9%) & 35-53 ATS (39.8%), respectively. Both are losing propositions, and most often, these majorities match up.
System Matches (FADE ALL): JACKSONVILLE, NY JETS, PHILADELPHIA, KANSAS CITY, BALTIMORE
DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle and number of bets were on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups actually produced winning records, 26-25 ATS (51%) and 34-32 ATS (51.5%) respectively. This matches somewhat with the logic I used to explain some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain,” they win. In this case, mildly.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI, CHICAGO
DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games, these majority groups were just 28-44 ATS (38.9%) and 29-44 ATS (39.7%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO, CHICAGO, DETROIT,
DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 26-22 ATS (54.2%). This is another situation where going against the grain paid off.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GREEN BAY, CINCINNATI
DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the handle was on the Under in an NFL game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 26-18 ATS (59.1%). This number for a supermajority in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for the number of bets produced a 23-17 record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NE-MIA, JAX-PIT, ATL-TEN, NYJ-NYG, PHI-WAS, MIN-GB, CLE-SEA, KC-DEN
DK Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #11, the magic mark for a supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably last season with a record of 38-63 (37.6%). This has been a long-standing belief to me, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 41-52 record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TB-BUF, HOU-CAR, LVR-DET
DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle was on the Over, and DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group lost big, going just 9-29 (23.7%). Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of those behind the counter being smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TB-BUF, LVR-DET
NFL Rookie/Re-Trend Coaching Systems
This material is from the VSiN piece entitled detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Jonathan Gannon (Arizona), DeMeco Ryans (Houston), Shane Steichen (Indianapolis), as well as re-tread coaches Sean Payton (Denver) and Frank Reich (Carolina).
Rookie Coach Systems
Rookie head coaches have shown a tendency to start and finish their first season most successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2013, in games #5-#12, they’ve gone 161-182-9 ATS (46.9%). Think of these trends when you see the schedules of the six rookie head coaches in 2023 released shortly.
System Matches: FADE INDIANAPOLIS, FADE ARIZONA, FADE HOUSTON
Among the key challenges new head coaches face is keeping teams grounded after wins as they’ve gone 138-153-10 ATS (47.4%) in that situation.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON
Rookie Coach Systems
Like the rookie head coaches, re-tread head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. In fact, their record in Home games – 79-119-1 ATS (39.9%).
System Matches: FADE DENVER, FADE CAROLINA
Re-tread head coaches have shown a tendency to start very slow at their new franchises and finish their first seasons more successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2013, in weeks #1-#10 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 89-143-8 ATS (38.4%)
System Matches: FADE DENVER, FADE CAROLINA
There seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these re-tread head coaches. Since 2013, when coming off a loss, the record has been just 94-133-9 ATS (41.4%).
System Matches: FADE CAROLINA
Re-tread coaches have been solid in revenge scenarios over the last decade, going 26-22-3 ATS (54.2%) when losing an earlier season game against an opponent. When having beaten that team the first time around, these coaches have gone just 9-18-1 ATS (33.3%) in the rematch.
System Matches: PLAY DENVER
NFL rookie quarterback systems
These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters out of the gate in ’23 include Bryce Young (Carolina), CJ Stroud (Houston), and Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis), although others could join them down the road.
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Rookie quarterbacks are trending downward
- Earlier, I indicated winning percentages of 40.9% straight up and 50.4% ATS for rookie quarterbacks since 2004. The results of late are far worse. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie quarterbacks who started at least seven games in a season are just 148-279-2 SU (34.7%) and 195-231-3 ATS (45.8%).
System Matches: *CONFLICT as Houston plays Carolina this week
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
- The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 103-109-1 ATS (48.6%) in home games but just 93-116 ATS (44.5%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, week 10-18, they are just 27-80 SU and 42-63-2 ATS (40%).
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON, FADE CHICAGO
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
- Since 2004, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 7 points or more have won just 26 games, going 26-160 SU & 75-102-9 ATS (42.4%).
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QB’s
- In their last 102 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 35-76-1 SU and 47-64-1 ATS (42.3%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Matches: FADE CAROLINA
NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.
Big Time Offensive Performances
Similarly to #4 above, NFL teams that have gained an explosive 8.75 yards per play or more in any given game have responded the next week by going just 22-20-1 SU & 15-26-2 ATS (36.6%) in their last 43 tries.
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE ATS (-8 at Arizona)
TNF, SNF and MNF Team Trends and Systems for the NFL
The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday NIGHT games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those played ON SUNDAY NIGHT, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, including some Wednesday & Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
- Since the home teams last won three straight ATS on TNF in September 2020, road teams have been on a roll, 29-24 SU and 33-18-2 ATS (64.7%) in the L53.
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY
- There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 19-18 SU but 10-25-2 ATS (28.6%). However, home-field advantage has picked up slightly in the second half of the season in recent years, with week 9-17 home teams going 14-17 SU and 15-18 ATS (75%) in that same time span. Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in weeks 9 & later are 30-23 SU and 31-20-2 ATS (60.8%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match: FADE BUFFALO ATS
- NFL Home Favorites of 7 points or more are on a 27-2 SU and 20-7-2 ATS (74.1%) run on Thursday games since the start of the 2014 season.
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO
- A wild trend has developed over the last 3+ seasons regarding TNF road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday, as they have rebounded incredibly with a 15-13 SU and 20-7-1 ATS (74.1%) record.
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY
- Unfortunately, home cooking has not solved the ills for Thursday home teams coming off a loss in their most recent game, as they have been a brutal bet over the last four seasons, going 19-28 SU and 16-30-1 ATS (34.8%).
System Match: FADE BUFFALO
Bad TNF Team Trends
Tampa Bay 1-9 ATS since 2013
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY ATS
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
- The biggest home favorites on Sunday nights, or those laying 7 points or more, have been solid of late, going 16-2 SU and 10-8 ATS (55.6%) in their last 18 tries. Prior to that, they were on a 5-13-1 ATS skid.
System Match: PLAY LA CHARGERS
- In SNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are just 21-20 SU and 15-24-2 ATS (38.5%) in the last 41. Under the total is also 21-12 (63.6%) in the last 33.
System Match: FADE LA CHARGERS ATS, also PLAY UNDER in CHI-DEN
- SNF teams coming off of losses have proven unprepared for the big time, as they have gone just 8-16 SU and ATS (33.3%) in their last 24 tries against teams off a win.
System Match: FADE LA CHARGERS
- Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last game are just 11-14 SU and 10-14-1 ATS (41.7%) in their last 25, but those coming off a win are on a current 14-3 SU and 11-6 ATS (64.7%) surge.
System Match: FADE LA CHARGERS
Bad SNF Team Trends
Chicago had six straight outright and ATS losses, all by double-digits
System Match: FADE CHICAGO ATS
LA Chargers 1-5 ATS skid
System Match: FADE LA CHARGERS ATS
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
- Laying 7 points or more has for long not been a good strategy on MNF, as favorites of 7 points or more are 42-11 SU but just 18-33-2 ATS (35.3%) since 2012.
System Match: FADE DETROIT ATS
- In MNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 21-20 SU but 10-29-2 ATS (25.6%) in the last 41.
System Match: FADE DETROIT ATS
- In concert with the theme of big underdogs faring well on MNF, teams scoring 17.5 PPG or less at the time have gone 8-10 SU and 13-5 ATS (72.2%) in their last 18 tries against teams scoring higher than that.
System Match: PLAY LAS VEGAS ATS
- Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 28-21 SU but just 17-30-2 ATS (36.2%) in the last 49 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match: FADE DETROIT ATS
If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:
Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends
Buffalo 10-3 SU and 8-5 ATS primetime run
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO
Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF & MNF) Team TrendsChicago 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS in the last 11
System Match: FADE CHICAGO
Tampa Bay 10-14 SU and 6-18 ATS in the last 24
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY ATS
Pre-Bye-Week Systems and Trends
The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason.
Pre-bye week system #1:
Play on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent. (Record: 51-20-1 ATS since ‘13, 71.8%, +29 Units, 40.8% R.O.I., Grade 73)
2023 Plays: PLAY DENVER ATS (+7.5 vs Kansas City)
Pre-bye week system #2
Play on favorites of 7 points or more heading into their bye week. (Record: 80-9 SU & 58-29-2 ATS since 2001, 66.7%, +26.1 Units, 29.7% R.O.I., Grade 72)
PLAY DETROIT ATS (-8 vs Las Vegas)
Pre-bye week system #3
Play on home underdogs heading into their bye week. (Record: 34-17-2 ATS since 2015, 66.6%, +15.3 Units, 30% R.O.I., Grade 68)
PLAY DENVER ATS (+7.5 vs Kansas City)
Pre-bye week system #5
Play Over the total in Monday Night Games featuring a team heading into their bye week. (Record: 30-16-1 since 2009, 65.2%, +12.40 Units, 27% R.O.I., Grade 65)
PLAY OVER in LVR-DET (o/u at 46)
DENVER Pre-Bye Week Game: 10/29 KANSAS CITY
- Denver is 8-3 SU and 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 pre-bye week games overall
System Match: PLAY DENVER
- The Broncos are on a 6-1 Over the total run in pre-bye week games vs. divisional rivals
System Match: PLAY OVER in KC-DEN
DETROIT Pre-Bye Week Game: MON 10/30 LAS VEGAS
- Detroit is on 10-2 Over the total surge in pre-bye week home games
System Match: PLAY OVER in LVR-DET
- The Lions are on a 6-1 Over the total surge in pre-bye week games vs. AFC foes, allowing 31 PPG
System Match: PLAY OVER in LVR-DET
JACKSONVILLE Pre-Bye Week Game: 10/29 at Pittsburgh
- The Jaguars are 8-5 SU and 8-4-1 ATS in their last 13 pre-bye week true road games
System Match: PLAY JACKSONVILLE ATS
- Jacksonville is on a 5-1 Under the total surge in pre-week games
System Match: PLAY UNDER in JAX-PIT
SAN FRANCISCO Pre-Bye Week Game: 10/29 CINCINNATI
- San Francisco has gone just 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five pre-bye week games
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO
Post-Bye-Week Systems and Trends
The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye-week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason
Post-bye week system #1:
Play on road favorites coming out of their bye week. (Record: 103-42 SU & 88-55-2 ATS since 1999, 61.5%, +27.5 Units, 19.0% R.O.I., Grade 67)
PLAY HOUSTON ATS, PLAY NY JETS ATS
Post-bye week road favorite subsystems:
vs. non-conference opponents. (Record: 31-13-1 ATS since ’00, 70.5%, +16.7 Units, 37.1% R.O.I., Grade 68) PLAY HOUSTON ATS, PLAY NY JETS ATS
Post-bye week system #2:
Play against home teams coming out of their bye week against non-conference opponents. (Record: 19-15 SU and 22-9-1 ATS since 2015, 71%, +12.15 Units, 39.2% R.O.I., Grade 72)
PLAY ATLANTA ATS, PLAY HOUSTON ATS
Post-bye week system #3:
Play AGAINST HOME UNDERDOGS coming out of their bye week. (Record: 37-13 SU and 31-18-1 ATS since 1999, 63.3%, +11.15 Units, 22.8% R.O.I., Grade 62)
PLAY TENNESSEE ATS, PLAY HOUSTON ATS
Post-bye week system #4:
Play Over the total in games involving posted totals of less than 40 with teams coming out of their bye week. (Record: 25-16-2 since ’10, 60.9%, +7.4 Units, 17.6% R.O.I., Grade 59)
PLAY OVER in ATL-TEN, PLAY OVER in NYJ-NYG
** Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.
CAROLINA Post-Bye Week Game: 10/29 HOUSTON
- Carolina has gone just 4-5 SU and 2-7 ATS in their last nine post-bye week home games, including the last three ATS losses in a row
System Matches: FADE CAROLINA ATS
- The last nine Panthers post-bye week games went Over the total
System Matches: PLAY OVER in HOU-CAR
CINCINNATI Post-Bye Week Game: 10/29 at San Francisco
- The Bengals are 1-4-1 SU and 2-4 ATS in their last six post-bye week games vs. NFC opponents
System Matches: FADE CINCINNATI ATS
- Cincinnati has gone 9-5 Over the total in their last 14 post-bye week road games
System Matches: PLAY OVER in CIN-SF
DALLAS Post-Bye Week Game: 10/29 LA RAMS
- Dallas is on a 12-6 SU and 13-5 ATS run in post-bye week games
System Matches: PLAY DALLAS ATS
- The Cowboys are 15-3 Over the total in post-bye week games since 2005
System Matches: PLAY OVER in LAR-DAL
HOUSTON Post-Bye Week Game: 10/29 at Carolina
- Houston has gone 4-1 Under the total in their last five post-bye week road games
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in HOU-CAR
NY JETS Post-Bye Week Game: 10/29 at NY Giants
- Like many other situations of late, the Jets have struggled in post-bye week games, 2-12 SU and 4-10 ATS in their last 14
System Matches: FADE NY JETS ATS
- The Jets are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five post-bye week games versus NFC foes
System Matches: FADE NY JETS ATS
TENNESSEE Post-Bye Week Game: 10/29 ATLANTA
- The Titans have won seven straight post-bye week games while going 6-0-1 ATS
System Matches: PLAY TENNESSEE ATS
- Tennessee is 11-4 SU and 10-3-2 ATS in their last 15 post-bye week home games
System Matches: PLAY TENNESSEE ATS
Handicapping NFL Rematch Games
The following trends and betting systems come from same-season rematch data over the last 12 seasons.
Best NFL rematch teams lately
Miami 9-3 ATS in their last 12, including 4-0 in 2022
System Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS (-9.5 vs New England)
Worst NFL rematch teams lately
Denver: 3-15 SU and 6-12 ATS in their last 18 tries
System Match: FADE DENVER (+8 vs Kansas City)
Philadelphia: just 4-8 SU and 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 rematch games
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA ATS (-6.5 at Washington)
Worst NFL home rematch teams lately
Washington: 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS in their last nine at home
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON ATS (+6.5 vs Philadelphia)
Worst NFL road rematch teams lately
New England: surprising 5-12 SU and 4-13 ATS record in their last 17 road rematches
System Match: FADE NEW ENGLAND ATS (+9.5 at Miami)
High-scoring rematch teams
Kansas City: On a 13-6 Over run
System Match: PLAY OVER in KC-DEN (o/u at 46)
This week’s NFL Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
This week's Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TENNESSEE +3 (+4.7), 2. GREEN BAY +1 (+1.5), 3(tie). PITTSBURGH +2.5 (+1.3) and CLEVELAND +3.5 (+1.3), 5. NEW ORLEANS +1.5 (+0.6)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BALTIMORE -8 (+2.2), 2. PHILADELPHIA -6.5 (+1.7), 3(tie). BUFFALO -8.5 (+1.6) and KANSAS CITY -7.5 (+1.6) and SAN FRANCISCO -5.5 (+1.6)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TENNESSEE +3 (+3.4), 2. GREEN BAY +1 (+2.7), 3. LA RAMS +6.5 (+2.1), 4. TAMPA BAY +8.5 (+1.7), 5. CAROLINA +3 (+1.1)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BALTIMORE -8 (+1.7), 2. SAN FRANCISCO -5.5 (+1.6), 3. LA CHARGERS -8.5 (+1.5), 4(tie). JACKSONVILLE -2.5 (+1.1) and NY JETS -3 (+1.1)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-WAS OVER 43.5 (+1.9), 2. ATL-TEN OVER 36 (+1.6), 3. CLE-SEA OVER 39.5 (+1.1), 4. CHI-LAC OVER 46.5 (+1.0), 5. TB-BUF OVER 43 (+0.8)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). CIN-SF UNDER 45 (-1.9) and LVR-DET UNDER 46 (-1.9), 3. LAR-DAL UNDER 45 (-1.8), 4. NO-IND UNDER 43.5 (-1.0), 5. NYJ-NYG UNDER 36.5 (-0.8)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PITTSBURGH +2.5 (+5.9), 2. TENNESSEE +3 (+5.6), 3. CLEVELAND +3.5 (+4.2), 4(tie). NEW ORLEANS +1.5 (+3.6) and CAROLINA +3 (+3.6)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA CHARGERS -8.5 (+3.6), 2. BUFFALO -8.5 (+3.2), 3. SAN FRANCISCO -5.5 (+2.7), 4. BALTIMORE -8 (+0.9), 5. MIAMI -9.5 (+0.7)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLE-SEA OVER 39.5 (+2.6), 2. PHI-WAS OVER 43.5 (+1.8), 3. NO-IND OVER 43.5 (+1.4), 4. CHI-LAC OVER 46.5 (+1.0), 5. JAX-PIT OVER 42 (+0.7)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CIN-SF UNDER 45 (-4.1), 2. LVR-DET UNDER 46 (-1.8), 3. BAL-ARI UNDER 44 (-1.7), 4. MIN-GB UNDER 43 (-0.9), 5(tie). LAR-DAL UNDER 45 (-0.8) and KC-DEN UNDER 46 (-0.8)
Top NFL Starting Quarterback Betting Trends
Here are 19 top betting trends detailing various quarterback performance records in situations as a starter:
* Jared Goff (DET) is 16-20 SU but 25-11 ATS (69.4%) with current HC Dan Campbell. The average line was +3.9, Team average PF: 22.5
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS (-8 vs Las Vegas)
* Joe Burrow (CIN) is 7-8-1 SU and 13-3 ATS (81.3%) as an underdog of 7 points or less. The average line was +4.3, Team average PF: 24.1
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI ATS (+5.5 at San Francisco)
* Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) is 16-4 SU and 15-5 ATS (75%) in home games. The average line was -2.5, Team average PF: 24.7
System Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS (-9.5 vs New England)
* Patrick Mahomes (KC) is 26-1 SU but 11-15-1 ATS (42.3%) in his last 27 games as a favorite of more than 7 points. The average line was -11, Team average PF: 28.8
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY ATS (-7.5 at Denver)
Top NFL Team Situational Trends
These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
ARIZONA is 18-25 ATS (41.9%) at home since 2018
ARIZONA is 16-12 ATS (57.1%) as an underdog since 2021
System Matches: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of ARIZONA (+8 vs Baltimore)
ATLANTA is 29-49 ATS (37.2%) as a favorite since 2014
ATLANTA is 13-28 ATS (31.7%) vs. nonconference foes since 2014
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (-3 at Tennessee)
BALTIMORE is 41-52 ATS (44.1%) as a favorite since 2015
BALTIMORE is 35-18 ATS (66%) in road/neutral games since 2017
System Matches: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of BALTIMORE (-8 at Arizona)
CAROLINA is 11-22 ATS (33.3%) at home since 2019
System Matches: FADE CAROLINA (+3 vs Houston)
CHICAGO is 21-39 ATS (35%) in road/neutral games since 2016
CHICAGO is 18-34 ATS (34.6%) as an underdog since 2019
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO (+8.5 at LA Chargers)
CINCINNATI is 47-26 ATS (64.4%) in road/neutral games since 2015
CINCINNATI is 20-10 ATS (67%) as an underdog since 2020
System Matches: PLAY CINCINNATI (+5.5 at San Francisco)
CLEVELAND is 11-4 ATS (73.3%) vs. nonconference foes since 2020
System Matches: PLAY CLEVELAND (+3.5 at Seattle)
DALLAS is 25-16 ATS (61%) in non-divisional conference games since 2019
System Matches: PLAY DALLAS (-6.5 vs LA Rams)
DENVER is 85-53 Under the total (61.6%) since 2015
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in KC-DEN (o/u at 46)
DETROIT is 15-4 ATS (78.9%) at home since 2021
DETROIT is 28-12 ATS (70%) overall since 2021
System Matches: PLAY DETROIT (-8 vs Las Vegas)
GREEN BAY is 18-10 ATS (64.3%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
GREEN BAY is 24-14 ATS (63.2%) at home since 2019
GREEN BAY is 17-9 ATS (65.4%) vs. divisional opponents since 2019
GREEN BAY is 16-7 ATS (69.6%) as an underdog since 2019
System Matches: PLAY GREEN BAY (+1 vs Minnesota)
INDIANAPOLIS is 22-12 ATS (64.7%) vs. nonconference foes since 2015
System Matches: PLAY INDIANAPOLIS (-1.5 vs New Orleans)
JACKSONVILLE is 14-23 ATS (37.8%) as a favorite since 2018
JACKSONVILLE is 25-17 Under the total (59.5%) since 2021
System Matches: FADE JACKSONVILLE (-2.5 at Pittsburgh), also PLAY UNDER in JAX-PIT (o/u at 42)
KANSAS CITY is 8-12 ATS (40%) vs. divisional opponents since 2020
KANSAS CITY is 49-31 ATS (61.3%) in road/neutral games since 2014
System Matches: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of KANSAS CITY (-7.5 at Denver)
LA CHARGERS are 29-44 ATS (39.7%) at home since 2014
System Matches: FADE LA CHARGERS (-8.5 vs Chicago)
LA RAMS are 20-9 ATS (69%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
LA RAMS are 38-24 UNDER the total (61.3%) since 2020
System Matches: PLAY LA RAMS (+6.5 at Dallas), also PLAY UNDER in LAR-DAL (o/u at 45)
LAS VEGAS is 26-41 ATS (38.8%) when coming off SU loss since 2015
LAS VEGAS is 29-44 ATS (39.7%) in road/neutral games since 2015
System Matches: FADE LAS VEGAS (+8 at Detroit)
MIAMI is 53-24 ATS (68.8%) at home since 2014
MIAMI is 30-19 ATS (61.2%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015
System Matches: PLAY MIAMI (-9.5 vs New England)
MINNESOTA is 14-24 ATS (36.8%) when coming off SU win since 2019
MINNESOTA is 44-31 Over the total (58.7%) since 2019
System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA (-1 at Green Bay), also PLAY OVER in MIN-GB (o/u at 43)
NEW ENGLAND is 6-14 ATS (30%) as an underdog since 2021
System Matches: FADE NEW ENGLAND (+9.5 at Miami)
NEW ORLEANS is 22-15 ATS (59.5%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
NEW ORLEANS is 31-15 ATS (67.4%) in road/neutral games since 2018
System Matches: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (+1.5 at Indianapolis)
NY GIANTS are 39-17 UNDER the total (69.6%) since 2020
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in NYJ-NYG (o/u at 36.5)
NY JETS are 10-21 ATS (32.3%) when coming off SU win since 2017
NY JETS are 7-18 ATS (28%) as a favorite since 2017
NY JETS are 12-23 ATS (34.3%) vs. nonconference foes since 2015
NY JETS are 17-35 ATS (32.7%) in road/neutral games since 2017
System Matches: FADE NY JETS (-3 at NY Giants)
PHILADELPHIA is 15-24 ATS (38.5%) in road/neutral games since 2019
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-6.5 at Washington)
PITTSBURGH is 86-56 UNDER the total (60.6%) since 2015
PITTSBURGH is 28-13 ATS (68.3%) as an underdog since 2018
System Matches: PLAY PITTSBURGH (+2.5 vs Jacksonville), also PLAY UNDER in JAX-PIT (o/u at 42)
SAN FRANCISCO is 16-23 ATS (41%) vs. nonconference foes since 2014
System Matches: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-5.5 vs Cincinnati)
SEATTLE is 35-46 ATS (43.2%) when coming off SU win since 2015
SEATTLE is 20-12 ATS (62.5%) vs. nonconference foes since 2015
System Matches: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of SEATTLE (-3.5 vs Cleveland)
TAMPA BAY is 19-32 ATS (37.3%) when coming off SU loss since 2016
System Matches: FADE TAMPA BAY (+8.5 at Buffalo)
WASHINGTON is 14-25 ATS (35.9%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
WASHINGTON is 13-23 ATS (36.1%) vs. divisional opponents since 2017
WASHINGTON is 35-21 Under the total (62.5%) since 2020
System Matches: FADE WASHINGTON (+6.5 vs Philadelphia), also PLAY UNDER in PHI-WAS (o/u at 43.5)
Top NFL Head-to-Head Series Trends
These are the top head-to-head series trends between teams from recent years’ action:
Tampa Bay at Buffalo
Home Favorites are 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in the TB-BUF series since 2000
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO ATS
Atlanta at Tennessee
The last four games of the ATL-TEN series went Under the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
Baltimore at Arizona
Road teams have won the last five ATS in the BAL-ARI series
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE ATS
Chicago at LA Chargers
Chicago is 6-2 ATS in their last eight vs. Chargers
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS
Cincinnati at San Francisco
Road teams have won the last four ATS in the CIN-SF series
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI ATS
Cleveland at Seattle
Favorites are on a 5-1-2 ATS run in the CLE-SEA series
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE ATS
Houston at Carolina
Carolina has won their last four ATS vs. Houston
System Match: PLAY CAROLINA ATS
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh
Road teams are on a 6-0-1 ATS surge in the JAC-PIT series
System Match: PLAY JACKSONVILLE ATS