VSiN Analytics Report for Wild Card Weekend
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Wild Card Weekend. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.
NFL Odds | NFL Betting Splits | NFL Matchups
Strategies using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the Betting Splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published in the 2023 NFL Betting Guide Part 2, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.
Now, here are the DK Betting Splits NFL Systems and their updated performance records:
NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past 1-1/2 seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 61-81 ATS (42.9%). The number for this supermajority in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, KANSAS CITY, LA RAMS
NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: The percentage breakdown can be expanded a bit for the number of bets. When 63%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 112-132 ATS (45.9%). Although these bettors are over .500 for the ’23 season, I’m still leaving this system on, as I believe they will return to norms down the stretch. The NFL is the most public of all bet-able sports. If 63%+ of the bettors at DraftKings likes a particular side, I would still feel comfortable to fade ’em.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, LA RAMS
NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2022 season, when the majority handle and the number of bets have backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 58-75 ATS (43.6%) and 56-76 ATS (42.4%) respectively. Both remain losing propositions, and most often, these majorities match up.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, PHILADELPHIA
NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle and the number of bets were on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have actually produced adequate records, 33-34 ATS (49.3%) and 46-43 ATS (51.5%) respectively going back to September 2022. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain,” they can at least maintain.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): LA RAMS
NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and the number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last 1-1/2 seasons, these majority groups are just 42-56 ATS (42.9%) and 42-56 ATS (42.9%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, KANSAS CITY, LA RAMS, PHILADELPHIA
NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022 or 2023 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group is 38-29 ATS (60.3%). This is proving to be another situation where going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GREEN BAY, LA RAMS
DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the handle has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has been quite sharp, 45-29 ATS (60.8%). This number for a supermajority in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for the number of bets has also produced a 35-22 (61.4%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIA-KC, PIT-BUF, PHI-TB
DK Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #10, the magic mark for a supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group has performed miserably in 2022 & 2023 with a record of 55-93 (37.2%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On the number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 59-77 (43.4%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): GB-DAL
NFL Rookie/Re-Trend Coaching Systems
This material is from the VSiN piece entitled detailing systems that apply to rookie coach DeMeco Ryans (Houston) this week.
Rookie Coach System
– Among the key challenges new head coaches face is keeping teams grounded after wins as they’ve gone 144-162-10 ATS (47.1%) in that situation.
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (+2.5 vs CLE)
NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems
These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season.
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Rookie quarterbacks are trending downward
- Earlier, I indicated winning percentages of 40.9% straight up and 50.4% ATS for rookie quarterbacks since 2004. The results of late are far worse. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie quarterbacks who started at least seven games in a season are just 159-296-2 SU (34.9%) and 208-245-4 ATS (45.9%).
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (+2.5 vs CLE)
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #2 – Rookie quarterbacks are a risky bet in the postseason
- In their last 14 playoff games, rookie quarterbacks are just 4-10 SU and ATS (28.6%). Take away Joe Flacco’s 2009 run, and the record drops to 2-9 SU and ATS, including 1-8 in their last nine.
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (+2.5 vs CLE)
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Non-Sunday games have been a respite for rookie QBs
- Rookie quarterbacks have fared reasonably well under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 14-14 SU but 20-8 ATS (71.4%) in their last 28 such tries. Moreover, they are 18-5-1 ATS (78.3%) in their last 24 Monday contests.
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON (+2.5 vs CLE)
NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.
CRAZY LOW SCORING GAMES COMMAND ATTENTION
- NFL teams that have won a game despite scoring less than 12 points in the victory have carried the momentum through the next game with a 17-12 SU and 19-9-1 ATS (67.9%) record.
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (+3 vs PHI)
NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors
The following betting systems were part of an article released in Week 8 of the NFL season focusing on winning and losing streaks. There were 15 different systems cited. These listed are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action.
NFL Streaks Betting System #1: NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS, all when favored, are on a 40-13 SU and 32-19-2 ATS (62.7%) run when favored in the next game as well.
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-3 at TB)
NFL Streaks Betting System #8: NFL teams that have lost their last five games ATS but were playing against a team whom they have at least an equal won-lost record with have gone 19-14 SU and 21-12 ATS (63.6%) in their last 33 tries.
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-3 at TB)
Handicapping NFL Rematch Games
The following trends and betting systems come from same-season rematch data over the last 12 seasons
Best NFL rematch teams lately
– Miami is 11-4 ATS in the last 15, including 6-1 in the last seven
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (+4.5 at KC)
Worst NFL rematch teams lately
– Cleveland: lengthy 9-26-1 ATS rematch skid in the last 36
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (-2.5 at HOU)
– Philadelphia: just 5-10 SU and 3-11-1 ATS in the last 15 rematch games
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-3 at TB)
High-scoring rematch teams
– Kansas City: 13-9 Over run
System Match: PLAY OVER in MIA-KC (o/u at 44)
Rematch Betting Systems
1) Teams playing on the road in revenge mode and averaging 28.0 PPG or more offensively have gone 17-7 SU and 19-6 ATS (76%) in their last 25 revenge tries
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (+4.5 at KC)
2) BONUS PLAYOFF SYSTEM – Teams that lost the prior same-season game versus an opponent are on a 7-9 SU and 5-11 ATS (31.3%) skid in the playoffs when hosting that same opponent
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON (+2.5 vs. CLE), FADE TAMPA BAY (+3 vs. PHI)
This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TAMPA BAY +3 (+1.6), 2. MIAMI +4.5 (+0.9), 3. HOUSTON +2.5 (+0.4)
This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BUFFALO -10 (+0.7), 2. DETROIT -3 (+0.6), 3. DALLAS -7.5 (+0.4)
This week’s Top 4 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TAMPA BAY +3 (+3.2), 2. MIAMI +4.5 (+2.0), 3. LA RAMS +3 (+0.4), 4. HOUSTON +2.5 (+0.1)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE THIS WEEK
This week’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PIT-BUF OVER 36 (+2.2), 2. CLE-HOU OVER 44.5 (+0.3), 3. PHI-TB OVER 44 (+0.2)
This week’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GB-DAL UNDER 50.5 (-3.8), 2. LAR-DET UNDER 51.5 (-2.5), 3. MIA-KC UNDER 44 (-1.3)
This week’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI +4.5 (+3.3), 2. LA RAMS +3 (+0.6)
This week’s Top 4 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BUFFALO -10 (+2.5), 2. PHILADELPHIA -3 (+2.1), 3. DALLAS -7.5 (+1.4), 4. CLEVELAND -2.5 (+0.2)
This week’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PIT-BUF OVER 36 (+3.6), 2. CLE-HOU OVER 44.5 (+2.0), 3. PHI-TB OVER 44 (+0.7)
This week’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GB-DAL UNDER 50.5 (-2.3), 2. MIA-KC UNDER 44 (-1.7), 3. LAR-DET UNDER 51.5 (-0.8)
Top NFL Starting Quarterback Betting Trends
Here are 19 top betting trends detailing various quarterback performance records in situations as a starter:
* Jared Goff (DET) is 23-23 SU but 32-14 ATS (69.6%) with current head coach Dan Campbell. The average line was +2.3, Team average PF: 23.8
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-3 vs LAR)
* Dak Prescott (DAL) is 4-7 SU and 3-8 ATS (27.3%) in January. The average line was -2.7, Team average PF: 24.3
System Match: FADE DALLAS (-7.5 vs GB)
Top NFL Team Situational Trends
These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
Saturday, January 13, 2024
(141) CLEVELAND at (142) HOUSTON
* CLEVELAND is 18-6-1 ATS in the last 25 games against poor rushing teams (2-0 ATS this season)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS
* Over the total is 8-0 for CLEVELAND road games this season
* Under the total is 8-2 in the last 10 HOUSTON games with QB CJ Stroud (6-1 to Under at home)
System Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER
(143) MIAMI at (144) KANSAS CITY
* MIAMI is 0-5 ATS against efficient defenses this season
System Match: FADE MIAMI ATS
* UNDER the total is 6-1 in L7 MIAMI games after a SU loss (4-0 to UNDER this season)
* UNDER the total is 13-2 in L15 KANSAS CITY home games as a favorite (7-1 to UNDER this season)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
Sunday, January 14, 2024
(145) PITTSBURGH at (146) BUFFALO
* PITTSBURGH is 5-0 ATS this season against poor rushing defenses
* PITTSBURGH is 14-4-1 ATS in their last 15 January road games (1-0 ATS this season)
* BUFFALO is 0-7 ATS in the last seven games as a favorite of 10 or more points (0-4 ATS this season)
System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH ATS
* PITTSBURGH is 20-6-1 to the Over in the last 27 Playoff Games, however 35-13-2 to the Under in the last 50 road games after a SU win (5-1 to Under this season)
* Under is 9-1 in the last 10 BUFFALO games vs AFC North opponents (1-0 to Under this season)
System Match: LEAN UNDER the total
(147) GREEN BAY at (148) DALLAS
* DALLAS is 13-2 ATS in the last 15 home games after previous game having a +2 turnover margin or better
System Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS
* Over the total is 7-0 in the last seven GREEN BAY road games against NFC opponents (6-0 to Over this season)
* Over the total is 7-0 in the last seven DALLAS home games as favorites of more than 7 points (4-0 to Over this season)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(149) LA RAMS at (150) DETROIT
* RAMS are 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 road games vs decent-scoring teams (3-1 ATS this season)
* DETROIT is 12-2-1 ATS in the last 15 games against teams with a winning record (5-1 ATS this season)
System Match: 1 PLAY on LA RAMS, 1 PLAY on DETROIT
* Over the total is 12-3 in the last 15 DETROIT home games as a favorite (6-2 to Over this season)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
Monday, January 15, 2024
(151) PHILADELPHIA at (152) TAMPA BAY
* PHILADELPHIA is 2-12-1 ATS in the last 15 games after a conference SU loss (0-4 ATS this season)
* TAMPA BAY is 0-7 ATS in the last seven home games against efficient offenses (0-2 ATS this season)