The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Wednessday, January 3, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, MEMPHIS, MINNESOTA, DALLAS, NEW YORK, UTAH, LA LAKERS, SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, LA CLIPPERS
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY): MEMPHIS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, HOUSTON, MEMPHIS, UTAH, MIAMI, SACRAMENTO
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors took heavy losses on moneyline wagering last season. Here are some more detailed specifics:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle was on double-digit favorites in a 2023 NBA game, this majority group was 92-22 outright but lost -55.45 units, an R.O.I. of -48.6%. This is a significant loss rate and shows how losing just over one of every five games can still be damaging.
System Matches (FADE): DALLAS ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): WSH-CLE, MIL-IND, OKC-ATL, BKN-HOU, TOR-MEM, CHI-NYK, DET-UTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 58% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 40-19 ATS (67.8%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): WSH-CLE, MIL-IND, OKC-ATL, DET-UTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals last season, or those more than 242, majority handle bettors were 18-7 (72%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in MIL-IND, PLAY UNDER in OKC-ATL
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 107-77 SU BUT 76-106-1 ATS (41.8%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
System Match: FADE LA LAKERS (-5.5 vs MIA)
* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 58-36 SU but 37-56-1 ATS (39.8%) hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
1/3: FADE LA LAKERS vs. Miami
System Match: FADE LA LAKERS (-5.5 vs MIA)
* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 50-19 SU and 43-23-3 ATS (65.2%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game last season.
1/3: HOUSTON vs. Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON (-5.5 vs BKN)
* Home teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game were 33-17 SU and 28-21-1 ATS (57.1%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
1/3: NEW YORK vs. Chicago
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK (-9.5 vs CHI)
1/3: SACRAMENTO vs. Orlando
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO (-5 vs ORL)
* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 19-16 SU and 23-12 ATS (65.7%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game last season.
1/3: SACRAMENTO vs. Orlando
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO (-5 vs ORL)
* Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home were 26-9 SU and 24-11 ATS (68.6%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
1/3: HOUSTON vs. Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON (-5.5 vs BKN)
* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 35-31 SU and 35-30-1 ATS (53.8%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.
1/3: MEMPHIS vs. Toronto
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (-1 vs TOR)
* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 25-8 SU and 20-12-1 ATS (62.5%) hosting teams playing in an H2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
1/3: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Atlanta
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (PK at ATL)
* Under the total was 74-43 (63.2%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
1/3: UNDER the total in MEMPHIS-TORONTO
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 227.5)
1/3: UNDER the total in PHOENIX-LA CLIPPERS
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 232)
* Over the total was 68-39 (63.6%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
1/3: OVER the total in NEW YORK-CHICAGO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 220.5)
1/3: OVER the total in SACRAMENTO-ORLANDO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 231)
* Over the total was 66-39 (62.9%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
1/3: OVER the total in SACRAMENTO-ORLANDO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 231)
* Over the total was 60-41 (59.4%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host was playing a 3rd in 4 Days game.
1/3: OVER the total in SACRAMENTO-ORLANDO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 231)
* Under the total was 34-31 (52.3%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
1/3: UNDER the total in TORONTO-MEMPHIS
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 227.5)
* Over the total was 27-13 (67.5%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing an A2A b2b game.
1/3: OVER the total in SACRAMENTO-ORLANDO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 231)
* Over the total was 32-26 (55.2%) last season when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
1/3: OVER the total in MINNESOTA-NEW ORLEANS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 222.5)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* MEMPHIS is 26-9 SU and 22-12 ATS at home in the 4th in 6 Days scenario over the last two seasons
1/3: MEMPHIS vs. Toronto
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (-1 vs TOR)
* MIAMI is 22-19 SU and 25-14 ATS in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
1/3: MIAMI at La Lakers
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (+5.5 at LAL)
* ORLANDO is 10-6 SU and 14-2 ATS in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario lately
1/3: ORLANDO at Sacramento
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (+5 at SAC)
* PHOENIX is 34-18 Over the total at home in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario over the last three seasons
1/3: OVER the total in LA CLIPPERS-PHOENIX
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 232)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details 5 different betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 77-47 SU and 74-47-3 ATS (61.2%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY TORONTO (+1 at MEM)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 67-55 (54.9%). In nonconference games, Over the total was 119-93 (56.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 169-115 (59.5%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in POR-DAL (o/u at 237.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
- Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 200-203 SU and 170-223-10 ATS (43.3%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (-5.5 vs BKN)
- NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 238-186 (56.1%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in OKC-ATL (o/u at 248.5), PLAY UNDER in MIL-IND (o/u at 257.5), PLAY UNDER in TOR-MEM (o/u at 229)
- NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 179-198 SU and 162-213-2 ATS (43.2%) in the next game.
System Match: FADE LA LAKERS (-5.5 vs MIA)
UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
- NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well in the next contest as well, going 102-71 SU and 103-68-2 ATS (60.2%).
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (+6.5 at MIN)
BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS
- NBA teams that beat a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have gone just 61-63 SU and 53-66-5 ATS (44.5%) in their next game.
System Match: FADE UTAH (-8.5 vs DET)
6. NBA teams that lose on a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have rebounded nicely the next game, going 69-50 SU and 69-50 ATS (58%).
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-11.5 vs POR)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 48-41 SU and 50-37-3 ATS (57.5%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY BROOKLYN (+5.5 at HOU)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY PK (+2.0), 2. MIAMI +5.5 (+1.8), 3. BROOKLYN +5.5 (+1.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS -11.5 (+3.9), 2. NEW YORK -9.5 (+0.7), 3. MEMPHIS -1 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI +5.5 (+4.0), 2. DETROIT +8.5 (+1.7), 3. ORLANDO +5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -9.5 (+0.8), 2. CLEVELAND -9.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIL-IND OVER 257.5 (+2.4), 2. TOR-MEM OVER 227 (+2.1), 3. BKN-HOU OVER 221 (+2.0)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NOP-MIN UNDER 222.5 (-2.4), 2. WSH-CLE UNDER 239.5 (-1.5), 3. DET-UTA UNDER 239.5 (-0.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +5.5 (+2.9), 2. MIAMI +5.5 (+2.3), 3. PHOENIX +3.5 (+1.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS -11.5 (+3.6), 2. MEMPHIS -1 (+1.1), 3. MINNESOTA -6.5 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIL-IND OVER 257.5 (+3.6), 2(tie). LAC-PHX OVER 232 (+2.6) and ORL-SAC OVER 231 (+2.6)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NOP-MIN UNDER 222.5 (-1.8), 2. WSH-CLE UNDER 239.5 (-1.6), 3. DET-UTA UNDER 239.5 (-1.3)
Top Daily Head-To-Head Series Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:
(529) WASHINGTON at (530) CLEVELAND
* CLEVELAND has won the last three ATS vs. Washington
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS
(531) MILWAUKEE at (532) INDIANA
* INDIANA is on a 4-1-1 ATS run vs. Milwaukee
System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS
(533) CHICAGO at (534) NEW YORK
* Underdogs have won the last four ATS in the CHI-NYK series
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS
(535) OKLAHOMA CITY at (536) ATLANTA
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-5 ATS in the last 14 visits to Atlanta
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS