The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, October 24, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detail the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors took heavy losses on moneyline wagering last season. Here are some more detailed specifics:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle moneyline wagerers had a brutal playoff run, going 48-39 for -34.6 units and an R.O.I. of -38.4%. Compare this to the regular season when they lost -34.2 units for a much less R.O.I. of -5%.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE BOTH): DENVER, PHOENIX
Now, two winning angles for majority handle moneyline bettors:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a money line wager, this majority group produced profits, going 54-82 for +5.5 units and an R.O.I. of 4.0%. This doesn’t seem to be a significant amount, but compared to the overall losses of -68.8 units, it represents a significant improvement. Again, it is quite rare, though, as there were 771 games in our sample.
System Matches: PLAY PHOENIX
The last system involves totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): LAL-DEN
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
NO QUALIFYING SCHEDULE SITUATIONS ON OPENING NIGHT (first one Saturday 10/28)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
NO QUALIFYING TEAM SPECIFIC TRENDS ON OPENING NIGHT (first one Friday 10/27)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five different betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NO QUALIFYING NBA TEAM STRENGTH SYSTEMS TODAY
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
NO EXTREME STAT NEXT GAME SYSTEMS TODAY (check back for game 2)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com.
This week's Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: LA LAKERS +5.5 (+0.9 difference), PHOENIX SUNS +3 (+0.9 difference)
This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY