The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Wednesday, December 27, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, GOLDEN STATE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, SAN ANTONIO
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE, LA LAKERS
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors took heavy losses on moneyline wagering last season. Here are some more detailed specifics:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle was on double-digit favorites in a 2023 NBA game, this majority group was 92-22 outright but lost -55.45 units, an R.O.I. of -48.6%. This is a significant loss rate and shows how losing just over one of every five games can still be damaging.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA ML, LA LAKERS ML
A winning angle for majority handle moneyline bettors:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group actually produced profits, going 54-82 for +5.5 units and an R.O.I. of 4.0%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall losses of -68.8 units, it represents a significant improvement. Again, it is quite rare though, as there were 771 games in our sample.
System Matches (PLAY): DETROIT ML
This last system involves totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DAL-MIN, SAS-POR, CHA-LAL
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams on 2 Day sRest are 103-77 SU but 72-106-1 ATS (40.4%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
12/28: FADE DENVER vs. Memphis
System Match: FADE DENVER (-7.5 vs MEM)
* Over the total was 32-25 (56.1%) last season when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
12/28: OVER the total in MINNESOTA-DALLAS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 229)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* MEMPHIS is 16-6 Under the total in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
12/28: UNDER the total in DENVER-MEMPHIS
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 224.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details 5 different betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 76-46 SU and 73-46-3 ATS (61.3%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY SAN ANTONIO (+4.5 at POR)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in nonconference games have gone 97-22 SU but just 44-73-2 ATS (37.6%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE LA LAKERS (-12.5 vs CHA)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 66-55 (54.5%). In nonconference games, Over the total was 117-90 (56.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 168-114 (59.6%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in DET-BOS (o/u at 232), PLAY OVER in DAL-MIN (o/u at 229), PLAY OVER in CHA-LAL (o/u at 227)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
- NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 235-185 (56%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in MIA-GSW (o/u at 228.5)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details 9 different betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 154-198 ATS (43.8%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 18-89 SU & 43-61-3 ATS (41.3%).
System Matches: FADE DETROIT (+16.5 at BOS), FADE CHARLOTTE (+12.5 at LAL)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO +4.5 (+1.6), 2. DALLAS +10 (+0.8), 3. MIAMI +3.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -16.5 (+1.2), 2. DENVER -7.5 (+0.9), 3. NEW ORLEANS -8 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI +3.5 (+1.8), 2. UTAH +8 (+1.6), 3. CHARLOTTE +12.5 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -16.5 (+3.4), 2. DENVER -7.5 (+1.8), 3. PORTLAND -4.5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIA-GSW OVER 228.5 (+2.3), 2. SAS-POR OVER 235.5 (+1.6), 3. MEM-DEN OVER 224.5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHA-LAL UNDER 227 (-1.2), 2. DET-BOS UNDER 232 (-0.8), 3. DAL-MIN UNDER 229 (-0.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO +4.5 (+2.3), 2. DALLAS +10 (+1.8), 3. MIAMI +3.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA -1.5 (+1.3), 2. BOSTON -16.5 (+1.0), 3. NEW ORLEANS -8 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-MIN OVER 229 (+3.4), 2. MIA-GSW OVER 228.5 (+1.9), 3. CHA-LAL OVER 227 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAS-POR UNDER 235.5 (-1.7), 2. DET-BOS UNDER 232 (-1.1), 3. UTA-NOP UNDER 240 (-0.9)