The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, October 29, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detail the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 1:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the HANDLE was on the HOME side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in a NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wager. When 65% or more of the HANDLE was on the ROAD side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, GOLDEN STATE
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority HANDLE of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the “super” majority benchmark for HANDLE success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing NUMBER of BETS. When 69% or more of the NUMBER of BETS was on the HOME side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, PHILADELPHIA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority NUMBER of BETS groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, the were 3.5% improved on these more rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority HANDLE was on UNDERDOGS for a money line wager, this majority group actually produced profits, going 54-82 for +5.5 units and a R.O.I. of 4.0%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall losses of -68.8 units, it represents a significant improvement. Again, it is quite rare though, as there were 771 games in our sample.
System Matches (PLAY): LA LAKERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the OVER in a NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking OVER’s. When less than 60% of the HANDLE favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with UNDER the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in all six games
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a “super” majority of 58% or more of the NUMBER of BETS was on the UNDER in a NBA game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 40-19 ATS (67.8%). This number for a “super” majority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): ATL-MIL
Schedule Situations Crucial For NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on some various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
1) NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more FREE THROW ATTEMPTS trended UNDER the total the next game, 214-160 (57.2%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in ATL-MIL (o/u at 238.5)
2) NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 152-172 SU & 140-183-1 ATS (43.3%) in the next game.
System Match: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (+3.5 vs Denver)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON +5 (+2.5), 2. LA LAKERS +2.5 (+1.9), 3. OKLAHOMA CITY +3.5 (+0.6)
This week’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE -6 (+1.0), 2. LA CLIPPERS -9.5 (+0.5)
This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY +3.5 (+1.4), 2. HOUSTON +5 (+1.0), 3. LA LAKERS +2.5 (+0.5)
This week’s Top UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE -6 (+1.5)