The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, October 28, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detail the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, CLEVELAND, MINNESOTA, PHOENIX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is slightly higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MEMPHIS, PHILADELPHIA
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the “super” majority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY): PHOENIX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, MEMPHIS, MIAMI
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group actually produced profits, going 54-82 for +5.5 units and an R.O.I. of 4.0%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall losses of -68.8 units, it represents a significant improvement. Again, it is quite rare, as there were 771 games in our sample.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, MIAMI
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYK-NOP, CHI-DET, PHI-TOR, MIA-MIN
Schedule Situations Crucial For NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams playing on Two Days Rest were 16-13 SU but 10-19 ATS (34.5%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
FADE MINNESOTA vs. Miami
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA ATS (-5 vs Miami)
FADE NEW ORLEANS vs. New York
System Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS ATS (-3 vs New York)
* Home teams playing on Two Days Rest are 24-7 SU and 19-11-1 ATS (63.3%) hosting teams playing in an H2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
MEMPHIS vs. Washington
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+1 vs. Memphis)
* OVER the total was 25-16 (69.2%) last season when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
Over the total in PHOENIX-UTAH
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in UTA-PHX (o/u at 224)
* OVER the total was 17-9 (65.4%) last season when the home team was on a A2H b2b and the road team was playing a 3rd in 4 Days game.
Over the total in DETROIT-CHICAGO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in CHI-DET (o/u at 214.5)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* WASHINGTON is 14-2 OVER the total at HOME in the Two Days Rest scenario over the last three seasons
Over the total in WASHINGTON-MEMPHIS
System Match: PLAY OVER in MEM-WAS (o/u at 228)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on some various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 64-36 SU and 60-37-3 ATS (61.9%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY MEMPHIS (-1 at Washington)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 48-16 SU and 42-21-1 ATS (66.7%).
System Matches: PLAY MEMPHIS (-1 at Washington), PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-4 at Toronto)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 171-174 SU and 143-192-10 ATS (42.7%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match: FADE INDIANA (+3 at Cleveland)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 170-172 SU and 149-183-10 ATS (44.9%) the next game over the last three seasons.
System Match: FADE INDIANA (+3 at Cleveland), FADE NEW YORK (+3 at New Orleans)
UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
Alternatively to #5 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 105-37 SU and 82-58-2 ATS (58.6%).
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-3 vs Indiana)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI +5 (+3.1), 2. NEW YORK +3 (+1.6), 3. TORONTO +4 (+1.2)
This week’s Top UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO -2 (+0.9)
This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI +5 (+1.1), 2. WASHINGTON +1 (+0.8), 3. NEW YORK +3 (+0.3)
This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND -3 (+1.1), 2. CHICAGO -2 (+0.4), 3. PHILADELPHIA -4 (+0.2)
This week’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-TOR OVER 214 (+4.7), 2. MIA-MIN OVER 218 (+2.0), 3. CHI-DET OVER 214.5 (+1.4)
This week’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NYK-NOP UNDER 224 (-2.0), 2. MEM-WAS UNDER 228 (-1.5), 3. UTA-PHX UNDER 224 (-0.8)
This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI +5 (+3.3), 2. TORONTO +4 (+2.0), 3. NEW YORK +3 (+1.9)
This week’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO -2 (+1.1), 2. MEMPHIS -1 (+0.6)
This week’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-CLE OVER 224 (+3.4), 2. MIA-MIN OVER 218 (+1.6), 3. UTA-PHX OVER 224 (+0.9)