The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Saturday, October 28, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detail the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:20 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, TORONTO, NEW ORLEANS, MILWAUKEE, OKLAHOMA CITY, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, BROOKLYN, MINNESOTA, DALLAS, ORLANDO
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the “super” majority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, TORONTO, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved in these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, TORONTO, OKLAHOMA CITY, LA LAKERS
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors took heavy losses on moneyline wagering last season. Here are some more detailed specifics:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle was on double-digit favorites in a 2023 NBA game, this majority group was 92-22 outright but lost -55.45 units, an R.O.I. of -48.6%. This is a significant loss rate and shows how losing just over one of every five games can still be damaging.
System Matches (FADE): BOSTON
These last two systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit these criteria, but the results were astounding, with UNDER the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIN-ATL, POR-TOR, GSW-NOP, DET-OKC, UTA-DEN, ORL-LAL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a “super” majority of 58% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 40-19 ATS (67.8%). This number for a “super” majority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BKN-CHA, MIN-ATL
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game were 28-13 SU and 25-15-1 ATS (62.5%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
10/30: TORONTO vs. Portland
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-8.5 vs Portland)
* Home teams playing an A2H b2b game were 23-15 SU and 24-14 ATS (63.2%) hosting teams playing in a 4th in 6 Days game last season.
10/30: DENVER vs. Utah
System Match: PLAY DENVER (-8 vs Utah)
* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 15-11 SU and 18-8 ATS (69.2%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game last season.
10/30: MILWAUKEE vs. Miami
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-5.5 vs Miami)
* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 23-18 SU and 24-16-1 ATS (60%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.
10/30: MILWAUKEE vs. Miami
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-5.5 vs Miami)
10/30: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Detroit
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-6 vs Detroit)
* Over the total was 61-37 (62.2%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
10/30: OVER the total in TORONTO-PORTLAND
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 217)
* Over the total was 58-38 (60.4%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
10/30: OVER the total in MILWAUKEE-MIAMI
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 224)
* Over the total was 53-35 (60.2%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host was playing a 3rd in 4 Days game.
10/30: OVER the total in TORONTO-PORTLAND
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 217)
* Under the total was 27-13 (67.5%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Dy Rest game.
10/30: OVER the total in MIAMI-MILWAUKEE
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 224)
10/30: OVER the total in DETROIT-OKLAHOMA CITY
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 225)
* Over the total was 18-8 (69.2%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on an A2H b2b and the road team was playing on 2 Days Rest.
10/30: OVER the total in LA LAKERS-ORLANDO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 218)
* Over the total was 18-9 (66.7%) last season when the home team was on an A2H b2b and the road team was playing a 3rd in 4 Days game.
10/30: OVER the total in DENVER-UTAH
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 227.5)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* ATLANTA is 16-28 SU and 14-29 ATS in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario over the last two seasons
10/30: FADE ATLANTA vs. Minnesota
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+2.5 vs Minnesota)
* ATLANTA was 23-7 Over the total in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario last season
10/30: OVER the total in MINNESOTA-ATLANTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 230.5)
* CHARLOTTE is 25-9 Under the total in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last three seasons
10/30: UNDER the total in BROOKLYN-CHARLOTTE
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 228)
* GOLDEN STATE is 21-7 Over the total in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
10/30: OVER the total in NEW ORLEANS-GOLDEN STATE
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 226.5)
* INDIANA is 49-28 Over the total at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last three seasons
10/30: OVER the total in INDIANA-CHICAGO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 229.5)
* MEMPHIS is 26-7 SU and 22-10 ATS at home in the 4th in 6 Days scenario over the last two seasons
10/30: MEMPHIS vs. Dallas
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (+2.5 vs Dallas)
* MEMPHIS is 45-11 SU and 36-19 ATS at HOME in the One Day Rest scenario over the last two seasons
10/30: MEMPHIS vs. Dallas
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (+2.5 vs Dallas)
* MIAMI is 19-15 SU and 22-11 ATS in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
10/30: MIAMI at Milwaukee
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (+5.5 at Milwaukee)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 35-14 Over the total at home in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario over the last three seasons
10/30: OVER the total in DETROIT-OKLAHOMA CITY
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 225)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on some various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 95-27 SU and 80-42 ATS (65.6%) run.
System Matches: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (-4.5 vs Golden State), PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-6 vs Detroit)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 49-16 SU and 43-21-1 ATS (67.2%).
System Matches: PLAY BROOKLYN (-1 at Charlotte)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, depending upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 63-46 (57.8%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 114-80 (58.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 147-102 (59.0%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER the total in BOS-WAS (o/u at 229)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 152-173 SU and 140-184-1 ATS (43.2%) in the next game.
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-8.5 vs Portland)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 171-173 SU and 150-184-10 ATS (44.9%) the next game over the last three seasons.
System Match: FADE BROOKLYN (-1 at Charlotte)
UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
Alternatively to #5 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebound well when favored the next time out, going 105-37 SU and 82-58-2 ATS (58.6%).
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-2.5 at Memphis)
DIVISIONAL ROAD UPSET LOSS CREATES URGENCY
NBA teams that lose as road favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 22-8 SU and 21-9 ATS (70%) in that follow-up try.
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO (+3 at Indiana)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE +4.5 (+4.1), 2. MEMPHIS +2.5 (+1.6), 3. PORTLAND +8.5 (+1.5)
This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS -2 (+2.8), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY -6 (+2.7), 3. BROOKLYN -1 (+1.8)
This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PORTLAND +8.5 (+2.4), 2. MEMPHIS +2.5 (+1.6), 3. GOLDEN STATE +4.5 (+1.3)
This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -6 (+3.5), 2. BOSTON -10 (+2.2), 3. BROOKLYN -1 (+2.0)
This week’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-TOR OVER 217 (+4.1), 2. ORL-LAL OVER 218 (+2.8), 3. UTA-DEN OVER 227.5 (+1.7)
This week’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BKN-CHA UNDER 228 (-8.7), 2. DAL-MEM UNDER 228 (-3.8), 3. BOS-WAS UNDER 229 (-2.1)
This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE +4.5 (+3.6), 2. MEMPHIS +2.5 (+1.5), 3. ATLANTA +2.5 (+0.7)
This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS -2 (+5.5), 2. DENVER -8 (+3.1), 3. OKLAHOMA CITY -6 (+2.5)
This week’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). POR-TOR OVER 217 (+3.6) and ORL-LAL OVER 218 (+3.6), 3. UTA-DEN OVER 227.5 (+1.3)
This week’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BKN-CHA UNDER 228 (-6.7), 2. DAL-MEM UNDER 228 (-3.0), 3. BOS-WAS UNDER 229 (-2.3)
Top Daily Head-To-Head Series Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:
(505) BOSTON at (506) WASHINGTON
Home teams have won the last four ATS in the BOS-WAS series
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS
(503) BROOKLYN at (504) CHARLOTTE
BROOKLYN is 11-3-1 ATS at Charlotte since 2015
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS
(501) CHICAGO at (502) INDIANA
* INDIANA has won the last three ATS vs. Chicago
System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS