The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Monday, January 8, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, OKLAHOMA CITY, CHICAGO, HOUSTON, UTAH
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY): MILWAUKEE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these more rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, MIAMI, MILWAUKEE
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors took heavy losses on moneyline wagering last season. Here are some more detailed specifics:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle was on double-digit favorites in a 2023 NBA game, this majority group was 92-22 outright but lost -55.45 units, an R.O.I. of -48.6%. This significant loss rate shows how losing just over one of every five games can still be damaging.
System Matches (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): UTA-MIL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 58% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 40-19 ATS (67.8%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): OKC-WSH, UTA-MIL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals last season, or those more than 242, the majority handle bettors were 18-7 (72%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): BOS-IND, OKC-WSH, UTA-MIL
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams playing an A2H b2b game were 26-21 SU and 26-21 ATS (55.3%) hosting teams playing in a 4th in 6 Days game last season.
1/8: LA CLIPPERS vs. Phoenix
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-6.5 vs PHX)
* Under the total was 77-46 (62.6%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
1/8: Under the total in INDIANA-BOSTON
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 244.5)
* Over the total was 24-13 (64.9%) last season when the home team was on a A2H b2b and the road team was playing a 3rd in 4 Days game.
1/8: OVER the total in LA CLIPPERS-PHOENIX
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 229.5)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* HOUSTON is 28-10 Over the total on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario over the last three seasons
1/8: OVER the total in MIAMI-HOUSTON
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 219)
* INDIANA is 18-14 SU and 22-9 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home scenario game over the last three seasons
1/8: INDIANA vs. Boston
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (+3.5 vs BOS)
* INDIANA is 55-31 Over the total at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last three seasons
1/8: OVER the total in INDIANA-BOSTON
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 244.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on some various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in nonconference games have gone 106-23 SU but just 49-78-2 ATS (38.6%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-12 at WSH)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 67-55 (54.9%). In nonconference games, Over the total was 120-96 (55.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 169-117 (59.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in OKC-WSH (o/u at 246.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
- NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 241-190 (55.9%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in UTA-MIL (o/u at 242.5)
DIVISIONAL ROAD UPSET LOSS CREATES URGENCY
- NBA teams that lose as road favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 24-9 SU and 23-10 ATS (69.7%) in that follow-up try.
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-6.5 vs PHX)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 6.6% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (134-158 ATS, 45.9%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (192-174 ATS, 52.5%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: CONSIDER WASHINGTON (+12 vs OKC)
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 49-42 SU and 51-38-3 ATS (57.3%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON (+12 vs OKC)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +8.5 (+2.3), 2. HOUSTON +4 (+1.5), 3. PHOENIX +6.5 (+1.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO -6.5 (+1.3), 2. BOSTON -3.5 (+0.5), 3. OKLAHOMA CITY -12 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON +12 (+5.0), 2. PHOENIX +6.5 (+2.1), 3(tie). CHARLOTTE +6.5 (+0.4) and HOUSTON +4 (+0.4)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -3.5 (+1.9)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHI-CHA OVER 216 (+2.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHX-LAC UNDER 230 (-1.4), 2. OKC-WSH UNDER 247 (-1.0), 3. HOU-MIA UNDER 220 (-0.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON +4 (+2.0), 2. PHOENIX +6.5 (+1.9), 3. UTAH +8.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections: