The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Friday, January 5, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in a NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, INDIANA, CLEVELAND, PHILADELPHIA, CHICAGO, DALLAS, PHOENIX, GOLDEN STATE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wager. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, LA CLIPPERS, MINNESOTA, ORLANDO
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, OKLAHOMA CITY, ORLANDO, PHOENIX, GOLDEN STATE, SACRAMENTO
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors took heavy losses on moneyline wagering last season. Here are some more detailed specifics:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle was on double-digit favorites in a 2023 NBA game, this majority group was 92-22 outright but lost -55.45 units, an R.O.I. of -48.6%. This significant loss rate shows how losing just over one of every five games can still be damaging.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON ML, CLEVELAND ML, DALLAS ML, GOLDEN STATE ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ATL-IND, WSH-CLE, CHA-CHI, MIN-HOU, ORL-DEN, DET-GSW, MEM-LAL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 58% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 40-19 ATS (67.8%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ATL-IND, DET-GSW
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals last season, or those more than 242, the majority handle bettors were 18-7 (72%).
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): ATL-IND
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams playing an A2H b2b game were 26-19 SU and 26-19 ATS (57.8%) hosting teams playing in a 4th in 6 Days game last season.
1/5: DENVER vs. Orlando
System Match: PLAY DENVER (-9.5 vs ORL)
* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 19-17 SU and 23-13 ATS (63.9%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game last season.
1/5: GOLDEN STATE vs. Detroit
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-10 vs DET)
* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 35-32 SU & 35-31-1 ATS (53%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.
1/5: GOLDEN STATE vs. Detroit
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-10 vs DET)
* Under the total was 75-44 (63%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
1/5: Under the total in GOLDEN STATE-DETROIT
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 240.5)
1/5: Under the total in SACRAMENTO-TORONTO
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 238)
* Over the total was 67-39 (63.2%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
1/5: Over the total in GOLDEN STATE-DETROIT
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 240.5)
* Under the total was 35-31 (53%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
1/5: Under the total in DETROIT-GOLDEN STATE
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 240.5)
* Over the total was 23-12 (65.7%) last season when the home team was on an A2H b2b and the road team was playing a 3rd in 4 Days game.
1/5: Over the total in DENVER-ORLANDO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 223.5)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* GOLDEN STATE is 40-13 SU and 33-17 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last three seasons
1/5: GOLDEN STATE vs. Detroit
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-10 vs DET)
* MIAMI is 23-19 SU and 26-14 ATS in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
1/5: MIAMI at Phoenix
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (+4 at PHX)
* ORLANDO is 10-7 SU and 15-2 ATS in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario lately
1/5: ORLANDO at Denver
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (+9.5 at DEN)
* PHOENIX is 35-18 Over the total at home in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario over the last three seasons
1/5: OVER the total in MIAMI-PHOENIX
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 229.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in nonconference games have gone 102-23 SU but just 47-76-2 ATS (38.2%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-14 vs UTA), FADE GOLDEN STATE (-10 vs DET)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 67-55 (54.9%). In nonconference games, Over the total was 119-94 (55.9%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 169-116 (59.3%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in UTA-BOS (o/u at 238.5), PLAY OVER in WSH-CLE (o/u at 239), PLAY OVER in POR-DAL (o/u at 239), PLAY OVER in DET-GSW (o/u at 240.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
- Teams scoring 134 points or more in any game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 201-203 SU and 171-223-10 ATS (43.4%) in the follow-up contest.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLE, OKC, IND, ATL, UTA, DET, SAC, ORL
- NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 239-189 (55.8%) since 2021.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in POR-DAL (o/u at 239), PLAY UNDER in UTA-BOS (o/u at 238.5)
- NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 179-199 SU and 162-214-2 ATS (43.1%) in the next game.
System Matches: FADE ORLANDO (+9.5 at DEN), FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-5.5 at BKN), FADE LA CLIPPERS (-1 at NOP), FADE UTAH (+14 at BOS)
- Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 195-191 SU and 170-204-12 ATS (45.5%) the next game over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE ORLANDO (+9.5 at DEN), FADE CLEVELAND (-10 vs WSH)
UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
- Alternatively to #5 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 118-43 SU and 91-68-2 ATS (57.2%).
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO (-5 vs TOR)
BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS
- NBA teams that beat a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have gone just 62-63 SU and 53-67-5 ATS (44.2%) in their next game.
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (-10 vs WSH)
7. NBA teams that lost on a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have rebounded nicely the next game, going 70-50 SU and 70-50 ATS (58.3%)
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+10 at CLE)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 6.2% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (134-158 ATS, 45.9%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (189-174 ATS, 52.1%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: CONSIDER BROOKLYN (+5.5 vs OKC)
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 48-42 SU and 50-38-3 ATS (56.8%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY BROOKLYN (+5.5 vs OKC)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHARLOTTE +8.5 (+2.2), 2. NEW YORK +6 (+2.0), 3. NEW ORLEANS +1 (+1.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS -10.5 (+3.4), 2. INDIANA -3 (+2.6), 3. PHOENIX -4 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS +1 (+2.6), 2. HOUSTON +3.5 (+1.6), 3. ORLANDO +9.5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -14 (+2.6), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY -5.5 (+1.8), 3. CLEVELAND -10 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHA-CHI OVER 220.5 (+2.3), 2. MEM-LAL OVER 227 (+1.1), 3. DET-GSW OVER 240.5 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TOR-SAC UNDER 238 (-2.4), 2. UTA-BOS UNDER 238.5 (-1.8), 3. ORL-DEN UNDER 223.5 (-1.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +5.5 (+3.3), 2. CHARLOTTE +8.5 (+2.5), 3. ORLANDO +9.5 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS -10.5 (+4.4), 2. PHOENIX -4 (+3.8), 3. GOLDEN STATE -10 (+1.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NYK-PHI OVER 231 (+3.8), 2. DET-GSW OVER 240.5 (+3.0), 3. LAC-NOP OVER 230.5 (+2.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHA-CHI UNDER 220.5 (-4.6), 2. ATL-IND UNDER 262 (-1.7), 3. POR-DAL UNDER 239 (-1.2)
Top Daily Head-To-Head Series Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:
(559) ATLANTA at (560) INDIANA
* Over the total is 11-1 in the last 12 of the ATL-IND series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(569) CHARLOTTE at (570) CHICAGO
* CHICAGO is on a 9-2 ATS run vs. Charlotte
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS
(581) DETROIT at (582) GOLDEN STATE
* Favorites are on a 6-2 ATS surge in the DET-GSW series
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS
(567) LA CLIPPERS at (568) NEW ORLEANS
* NEW ORLEANS has won the last seven ATS hosting LA Clippers
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS
(583) MEMPHIS at (584) LA LAKERS
* LA LAKERS have won the last six ATS hosting Memphis
System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS ATS
(577) MIAMI at (578) PHOENIX
* MIAMI is 13-2 ATS at Phoenix since 2007
System Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS