VSiN Analytics College Football Report for Week 9
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 9. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.
Strategies using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits data
VSiN.com’s Betting Splits pages are among our most touted features and a fantastic resource for bettors. We have built these pages using the data DraftKings provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines and totals. In an article published in the 2023 College Football Betting Guide, Makinen outlined 13 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the ’22 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games (records are shown heading into the 2023 season). These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated betting splits article on Saturday morning.
College Football Betting Splits | College Football Odds
DK Betting Splits system #1: When 80% or more of the HANDLE was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 40-47 ATS (46%). In other words, if you saw the big GREEN lights on the VSiN betting splits HANDLE page 80% or higher, it was best to fade it.
System matches (FADE ALL): FLORIDA ATLANTIC, ARMY, NORTH CAROLINA, MARYLAND, WESTERN MICHIGAN, NORTH TEXAS, AUBURN, IOWA STATE, OHIO, BYU, OREGON, LOUISIANA-MONROE, SOUTH ALABAMA, BOISE STATE, WASHINGTON, TROY, VANDERBILT, OHIO STATE, JAMES MADISON, NEW MEXICO, SAN JOSE STATE
DK Betting Splits system #2: When 75%+ of the number of BETS were on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 66-76 ATS (46.5%). Again, if you see the big GREEN lights on the VSiN betting splits # of BETS page 75% or higher, it was best to fade it.
System matches (FADE ALL): JACKSONVILLE STATE, ARMY, NORTH CAROLINA, MARYLAND, FLORIDA STATE, USC, SOUTH ALABAMA, WASHINGTON, COLORADO, OHIO STATE, SAN JOSE STATE
DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the HANDLE was on ROAD FAVORITES for an ATS wager, this majority group was just 58-85 ATS (40.6%). More recreational bettors love road favorites because they are usually the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer.
System matches (FADE ALL): LIBERTY, JACKSONVILLE STATE, FLORIDA ATLANTIC, NORTH CAROLINA, CLEMSON, MARYLAND, FLORIDA STATE, WESTERN MICHIGAN, IOWA STATE, OREGON, USC, TULANE, TENNESSEE, WASHINGTON, TROY, OHIO STATE, SAN JOSE STATE
DK Betting Splits system #4: Similarly to #3 above, when the majority NUMBER of BETS was on ROAD FAVORITES for an ATS wager, this majority group was just 59-75 ATS (44.0%). Bet volume usually covers more public action, and again, recreational bettors love road favorites but don’t typically fare well long term.
System matches (FADE ALL): LIBERTY, JACKSONVILLE STATE, FLORIDA ATLANTIC, NORTH CAROLINA, OKLAHOMA, CLEMSON, MARYLAND, FLORIDA STATE, WESTERN MICHIGAN, MEMPHIS, IOWA STATE, OREGON, USC, TULANE, AIR FORCE, TENNESSEE, WASHINGTON, TROY, OHIO STATE, WASHINGTON STATE, OREGON STATE, SAN JOSE STATE
DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority of the HANDLE was on ROAD UNDERDOGS for an ATS wager, this majority group was 100-82 ATS (54.9%). Now, 54.9% is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates, and goes to show that being on the “smart” side of majority handle can pay off. Remember, higher handle feels less “public” than higher bet counts.
System matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NEW MEXICO STATE, HOUSTON, VIRGINIA, MICHIGAN STATE, BYU, SOUTHERN MISS, VANDERBILT, COLORADO, CINCINNATI, NEW MEXICO
DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority NUMBER of BETS was on ROAD UNDERDOGS for an ATS wager, this majority group was 98-75 ATS (56.6%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #5 actually and suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.
System matches (PLAY ALL): NEW MEXICO STATE, HOUSTON, DUKE, VIRGINIA, MIAMI OH, WYOMING, VANDERBILT, COLORADO, NEW MEXICO
DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority of NUMBER of BETS backed a team in an ATS wager in NON-SATURDAY games, their 2022 season record was 72-46 (61%). This goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from. A lot of times their mistake proves to be taking too many games on a Saturday.
System matches (PLAY ALL): NEW MEXICO STATE, LIBERTY, JACKSONVILLE STATE, SAM HOUSTON STATE, VIRGINIA TECH, GEORGIA SOUTHERN, FLORIDA ATLANTIC
DK Betting Splits system #8: When the majority of the HANDLE backed the team with more season wins in an FBS vs. FBS contest for an ATS wager, this majority group was just 100-131 ATS (43.3%). More than not, bettors like to back the “better team” in a matchup, regardless of what the point spread indicates. Again, the point spread is the eternal equalizer.
System matches (FADE ALL): NEW MEXICO STATE, LIBERTY, JACKSONVILLE STATE, FLORIDA ATLANTIC, ARMY, FLORIDA STATE, PENN STATE, BOSTON COLLEGE, MARYLAND, TEXAS A&M, SMU, GEORGIA, LOUISVILLE, NEBRASKA, IOWA STATE, UTSA, TULANE, USC, WASHINGTON, OHIO STATE, NORTH CAROLINA, JAMES MADISON, NEW MEXICO, SAN JOSE STATE
DK Betting Splits system #9: When the majority of the HANDLE backed a team in an FBS vs. FBS contest for an ATS wager, but the line moved towards the OPPOSITE team, this majority group was just 38-49 ATS (43.7%). This can be a tricky one to avoid, as it can be referred to as a trap in booking circles. The theory is that the more money a team gets on it, the more likely the line moves toward that team. This is the opposite scenario, and usually the public loses.
System matches (FADE ALL): GEORGIA SOUTHERN, FLORIDA ATLANTIC, FLORIDA STATE, NORTH TEXAS, GEORGIA, LOUISVILLE, NEBRASKA, BOISE STATE, COASTAL CAROLINA, COLORADO STATE, NORTH CAROLINA
DK Betting Splits system #10: The average college football total last year was 54.5. In games where the totals reached 57 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority HANDLE bettors favored the UNDER, they were relatively sharp, going 35-21 (62.5%). This is pretty rare, as it occurred in only 56 of 776 games.
System matches (PLAY UNDER): GEORGIA STATE-GEORGIA SOUTHERN, NORTH CAROLINA-GEORGIA TECH, TULSA-SMU, MEMPHIS-NORTH TEXAS, USC-CAL, VANDERBILT-OLE MISS, COLORADO-UCLA, UNLV-FRESNO STATE
DK Betting Splits system #11: On games with totals of 45 or lower, 70%+ super majority HANDLE bettors siding with the UNDER were 15-8 (65.2%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting UNDERs, this didn’t produce a lot of plays but the super handle majority were sharp.
System matches (PLAY UNDER): FLORIDA ATLANTIC-CHARLOTTE, MISSISSIPPI STATE-AUBURN, MICHIGAN STATE-MINNESOTA, MIAMI (OHIO)-OHIO
DK Betting Splits system #12: On games with totals of 45 or lower, 75%+ super majority number of BETS bettors bucking the low total and siding with the OVER were 22-13 (62.9%). Again, not a ton of plays here but the more public option of number of BETS was pretty good when going against the grain.
System matches (PLAY OVER): UTEP-SAM HOUSTON STATE, CLEMSON-NC STATE, PITT-NOTRE DAME, MIAMI (OHIO)-OHIO, OHIO STATE-WISCONSIN
DK Betting Splits system #13: On games where the HANDLE has a majority on totals and the # of BETS has the opposite majority, the majority HANDLE plays went 112-93 (54.6%). This could be described as more sharp action being displayed by the majority handle.
System matches:
PLAY UNDER when opposite majorities and HANDLE favors UNDER
PLAY OVER when opposite majorities and HANDLE favors OVER
College Football Revenge Handicapping
The following are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best and worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. This material was taken from an article published in late August. REVENGE is defined as having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only.
Best and Worst College Football Revenge Teams (since ’16)
Best
* WISCONSIN is 10-5 SU and ATS (66.7%) in revenge mode since ’16
System match: PLAY WISCONSIN (+14.5 vs. Ohio State)
* LOUISIANA is 9-8 SU and 12-5 ATS (71%) in revenge mode since ’16
System match: PLAY LOUISIANA (+9.5 at South Alabama)
* UTAH is 15-7 SU and 16-6 ATS (72.7%) in revenge mode since ’16
System match: PLAY UTAH (+6.5 vs. Oregon)
* KENTUCKY is 15-14 SU and 19-10 ATS (65.5%) in revenge mode since ’16
System match: PLAY KENTUCKY (+3.5 vs. Tennessee)
* CALIFORNIA is 16-18 SU and 20-14 ATS (58.8%) in revenge mode since ’16
System match: PLAY CALIFORNIA (+10.5 vs. USC)
* TULSA is 10-18 SU and 17-10 ATS (63%) in revenge mode since ’16
System match: PLAY TULSA (+18.5 at SMU)
Worst
* MARSHALL is 9-8 SU and 5-12 ATS (29%) in revenge mode since ’16
System match: FADE MARSHALL (-3.5 at Coastal Carolina)
* MASSACHUSETTS is 2-19 SU and 8-13 ATS (38.1%) in revenge mode since ’16
System match: FADE MASSACHUSETTS (+10 at Army)
College football revenge systems
Neutral field underdogs are great in revenge
Since the start of the 2016 season, neutral-field underdogs playing in revenge mode have gone 41-25 ATS (61.5%).
System match: PLAY FLORIDA (+14.5 vs. Georgia)
Home/Road revenge line range angles that have thrived
Double-digit road favorites have been solid producers in the revenge role, going 45-32 ATS (58.4%) since 2016.
System matches: PLAY FLORIDA STATE (-20 at Wake Forest), PLAY NORTH CAROLINA (-11 at Georgia Tech)
Revenge teams that lost as double-digit favorites last time out
Teams looking to avenge outright losses where they were double-digit favorites have struggled, going just 94-111 ATS (45.9%) since 2016.
System match: FADE NORTH CAROLINA (-11 at Georgia Tech)
Key stats of the team seeking revenge matter
Better defensive teams are more successful in exacting revenge than prolific offense. Since the start of the 2016 season, teams allowing 24 PPG or less have gone 591-528 ATS (52.8%) as compared to those scoring 35 PPG or more, 354-383 ATS (48%).
System matches (GOOD DEFENSIVE TEAMS ALLOWING <= 24 PPG): CHARLOTTE, KENTUCKY, FLORIDA STATE, NORTH CAROLINA, NC STATE, MIAMI OHIO, NEBRASKA, UTAH, FLORIDA, IOWA STATE, WISCONSIN, AUBURN, TEXAS A&M
Revenge is sweet against porous defensive foes
Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been very successful, going 203-154 ATS (56.9%) since 2016.
System match: PLAY LOUISIANA-MONROE (-2.5 vs. Arkansas State)
College Football Systems based on AP poll rankings
The following college football betting systems take into account whether or not teams in a non-neutral field game are ranked in the AP poll
CFB AP Poll Rankings System #1 – Games featuring two ranked teams
· In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, HOME TEAMS are NOW 160-77 SU and 138-91-8 ATS (60.3%).
System matches (PLAY ALL): UTAH, LOUISVILLE
· Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 95-17 SU and 71-37-4 ATS (65.7%).
System match: PLAY LOUISVILLE
· Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 49-14 SU and 44-16-3 ATS (73.3%) since ’17.
System match: PLAY LOUISVILLE
Extreme stat next game CFB betting systems
Upset losses as huge favorites snowball
Teams that lose in a college football game as favorites of 19.5 points or more have gone just 38-62 SU and 34-62-4 ATS (35.4%) in the follow-up contest since 2012.
System match: FADE NORTH CAROLINA (-11 at Georgia Tech)
Unexpected blowout games are bad future indicators for both teams
Both college football teams coming off a game that was decided by a margin of 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next contest, going just 122-166 ATS (42.4%) over the last decade-plus.
System match: FADE ARIZONA (+3.5 vs. Oregon State)
Not taking advantage enough of turnovers can be a red flag
CFB FBS teams that benefitted from a +5 turnover differential or greater but failed to score 44+ points in that game have responded by going just 35-50 ATS (41.2%) in their next contest since ’12.
System match: FADE BYU (+17.5 at Texas)
Conference wins while struggling offensively are momentum-builders
Over the last decade, college football teams that won a conference game despite gaining less than 250 yards of offense have used that victory to build momentum, going 65-39 ATS (62.5%) in the follow-up contest.
System matches: PLAY NEBRASKA (-2.5 vs. Purdue), PLAY NEVADA (-1 vs. New Mexico), PLAY MINNESOTA (-7 vs. Michigan State), PLAY MISSISSIPPI STATE (+6.5 at Auburn)
This week’s College Football Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN WEEKLY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. COASTAL CAROLINA +4 (+8.9), 2. MIAMI OHIO +7 (+4.8), 3. SYRACUSE +2.5 (+4.1), 4. EASTERN MICHIGAN +3 (+3.4), 5. WESTERN KENTUCKY +5.5 (+2.8), 6. EAST CAROLINA +18.5 (+2.7), 7. VIRGINIA +19 (+2.3), 8. RICE +10.5 (+2.0), 9 (tie). UTAH +7 (+1.9) and CINCINNATI +7.5 (+1.9)
This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. ARMY -10 (+5.3), 2. TENNESSEE -4 (+4.9), 3. WASHINGTON -26.5 (+4.8), 4. PENN STATE -32 (+4.1), 5. NORTH CAROLINA -11 (+4.0), 6. FLORIDA ATLANTIC -4 (+3.9), 7. OHIO STATE -14.5 (+3.8), 8. MINNESOTA -7 (+3.7), 9. SAN JOSE STATE -10 (+3.6), 10. OLE MISS -24.5 (+3.5)
This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. TULSA +21 (+7.4), 2. COASTAL CAROLINA +4 (+6.8), 3. EAST CAROLINA +18.5 (+6.2), 4. PITTSBURGH +20.5 (+6.0), 5. MIAMI OHIO +7 (+5.3), 6. HOUSTON +17.5 (+3.8), 7 (tie). UNLV +7.5 (+3.6) and RICE +10.5 (+3.6), 9. KANSAS +10 (+3.1), 10. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL +8 (+2.8)
This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. PENN STATE -32 (+7.9), 2. AIR FORCE -12 (+3.7), 3 (tie). NORTH CAROLINA -11 (+3.4) and APP STATE -17 (+3.4), 5. LOUISIANA-MONROE -2.5 (+3.2), 6. AUBURN -6.5 (+2.8), 7. SAM HOUSTON STATE -3 (+2.6), 8. WASHINGTON -26.5 (+2.2), 9. TEXAS -17.5 (+2.1), 10. LOUISVILLE -4 (+1.5)
This week’s Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. MARSHALL-COASTAL CAROLINA OVER 45 (+7.8), 2. VIRGINIA-MIAMI FLA OVER 47.5 (+5.7), 3. CLEMSON-NC STATE OVER 44 (+5.0), 4. MICHIGAN STATE-MINNESOTA OVER 40 (+4.3), 5. PITT-NOTRE DAME OVER 44.5 (+4.2), 6 (tie). UMASS-ARMY OVER 48 (+3.7) and GEORGIA-FLORIDA OVER 47 (+3.7), 8. PURDUE-NEBRASKA OVER 40.5 (+3.6), 9. FLORIDA STATE-WAKE FOREST OVER 51 (+3.5), 10. ARKANSAS STATE-LOUISIANA-MONROE OVER 56.5 (+3.2)
This week’s Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. MEMPHIS-NORTH TEXAS UNDER 69.5 (-5.1), 2. GEORGIA STATE-GEORGIA SOUTHERN UNDER 64 (-4.4), 3. UNLV-FRESNO STATE UNDER 58.5 (-3.1), 4. TULSA-SMU UNDER 58.5 (-3.0), 5. OKLAHOMA-KANSAS UNDER 65.5 (-2.3), 6. NEW MEXICO STATE-LOUISIANA TECH UNDER 54 (-1.9), 7. TULANE-RICE UNDER 54 (-1.4), 8. LIBERTY-WESTERN KENTUCKY UNDER 60.5 (-0.8), 9. OREGON-UTAH UNDER 49 (-0.7), 10. CINCINNATI-OKLAHOMA STATE UNDER 54 (-0.6)
This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. EAST CAROLINA +18.5 (+11.5), 2. CINCINNATI +7.5 (+8.9), 3. SYRACUSE +2.5 (+8.8), 4. BAYLOR +2.5 (+5.6), 5. TULSA +21 (+5.5), 6. SOUTHERN MISS +17 (+4.8), 7 (tie). UCONN +14.5 (+4.6) and COLORADO +18 (+4.6), 9. PITTSBURGH +20.5 (+4.4), 10. LOUISIANA +10 (+4.1)
This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. WASHINGTON STATE -6 (+8.6), 2. TULANE -10.5 (+7.0), 3. ARMY -10 (+6.6), 4. OREGON STATE -3.5 (+6.3), 5. MEMPHIS -7.5 (+5.4), 6 (tie). BOISE STATE -4 (+5.0) and WASHINGTON -26.5 (+5.0) and AUBURN -6.5 (+5.0), 9. LOUISIANA TECH -2.5 (+4.6), 10. TEXAS -17.5 (+4.1)
This week’s Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. MARSHALL-COASTAL CAROLINA OVER 45 (+8.0), 2. PURDUE-NEBRASKA OVER 40.5 (+6.4), 3. UMASS-ARMY OVER 48 (+5.8), 4. FLORIDA ATLANTIC-CHARLOTTE OVER 41 (+5.2), 5. MICHIGAN STATE-MINNESOTA OVER 40 (+4.5), 6. DUKE-LOUISVILLE OVER 46 (+4.2), 7. GEORGIA-FLORIDA OVER 47 (+3.9), 8 (tie). JACKSONVILLE STATE-FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL OVER 46.5 (+3.8) and CLEMSON-NC STATE OVER 44 (+3.8), 10. TENNESSEE-KENTUCKY OVER 51.5 (+3.6)
This week’s Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. ARKANSAS STATE-LOUISIANA MONROE UNDER 56.5 (-1.9), 2(tie). UNLV-FRESNO STATE UNDER 58.5 (-1.8) and SAN JOSE STATE-HAWAII UNDER 60 (-1.8), 4. WASHINGTON STATE-ARIZONA STATE UNDER 51 (-1.5), 5. VANDERBILT-OLE MISS UNDER 63.5 (-1.4), 6. MEMPHIS-NORTH TEXAS UNDER 69.5 (-1.3), 7. WASHINGTON-STANFORD UNDER 59.5 (-1.1), 8(tie). BYU-TEXAS UNDER 50.5 (-1.0) and TULSA-SMU UNDER 58.5 (-1.0), 10. SYRACUSE-VIRGINIA TECH UNDER 47 (-0.5)
Top College Football Team Situational Trends
These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
* ARIZONA STATE is 21-10-1 (67.7%) ATS as Underdog since '18
System match: PLAY ARIZONA STATE (+6 vs. Washington State)
* CALIFORNIA is 22-12 (64.7%) ATS as Underdog since '18
System match: PLAY CALIFORNIA (+10.5 vs. USC)
* CLEMSON is 18-7 (72%) ATS in Road/Neutral games since '20
System match: PLAY CLEMSON (-10 at NC State)
* FLORIDA STATE is 7-16 (30.4%) ATS in Road/Neutral games since '19
* FLORIDA STATE is 6-14 (30%) ATS in Conference games since '21
System match: FADE FLORIDA STATE (-20 at Wake Forest)
* FRESNO STATE is 23-11 (67.6%) UNDER the total since '21
* FRESNO STATE is 17-7 (70.8%) ATS coming off SU win since '21
System match: PLAY FRESNO STATE (-9.5 vs. UNLV), also PLAY UNDER in UNLV-Fresno State (o/u at 58.5)
* GEORGIA is 18-7 (72%) ATS in Road/Neutral games since '20
System match: PLAY GEORGIA (-14.5 vs. Florida)
* JAMES MADISON is 16-5 (76.2%) ATS as Favorite since '20
System match: PLAY JAMES MADISON (-17.5 vs. Old Dominion)
* MISSISSIPPI STATE is 22-11 (66.7%) UNDER the total since '21
System match: PLAY UNDER in MISSISSIPPI STATE-Auburn (o/u at 43)
* NEBRASKA is 1-10 (9.1%) ATS at Home in last 11
System match: FADE NEBRASKA (-3 vs. Purdue)
* NEW MEXICO is 15-34 (30.6%) ATS in Conference games since '17
System match: FADE NEW MEXICO (+2.5 at Nevada)
* OLE MISS is 5-14 (26.3%) ATS in Conference games since '21
System match: FADE OLE MISS (-25.5 vs. Vanderbilt)
* OREGON STATE is 23-9 (71.9%) ATS coming off SU win since '16
System match: PLAY OREGON STATE (-3.5 at Arizona)
* PENN STATE is 7-19 (26.9%) ATS coming off SU loss since '15
System match: FADE PENN STATE (-32 vs. Indiana)
* PURDUE is 14-8 (63.6%) ATS as Underdog since '20