The Thursday Night Football matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles is one of three this week between teams that made the playoffs a year ago, and we have you covered with our best Vikings vs. Eagles prediction based on the best TNF odds.
Minnesota was always bound for regression after finishing a ridiculous 11-0 in one-possession games last year. That regression came as early as the season opener, as the Vikings lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20-17 at home. The Vikings never got any momentum going late in the game, as their final two drives to tie or take the lead resulted in six plays for just six total yards.
Philadelphia is trying to avoid the dubious fate of many Super Bowl losers from the previous season, as 17 of those 56 teams missed the playoffs the following year, while 48 did not return to the Super Bowl. However, the Eagles passed their first test with a 25-20 road victory against the New England Patriots and improved to 3-0 in season openers under head coach Nick Sirianni.
Here is our best Vikings vs. Eagles prediction for Thursday Night Football (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Vikings vs. Eagles prediction: Thursday Night Football
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Minnesota is likely kicking itself for not taking advantage of the opportunities it had in the first half to build a bigger lead against Tampa Bay, as it out-gained the Buccaneers 287-96 over the first 30 minutes, but three first-half turnovers thwarted any momentum.
The Buccaneers allowed 11 first downs in the first half, and Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson torched them for seven catches and 138 yards. However, after halftime, Tampa Bay allowed just 82 total yards and seven first downs, and held Jefferson to 12 yards on two receptions.
If Minnesota can't generate a more consistent running game, which was always going to be an issue after losing Dalvin Cook, its offense will have trouble moving the ball. Vikings running backs totaled just 34 yards on 14 carries, with Alexander Mattison running for more than five yards just twice.
Minnesota's offensive line woes go deeper than run blocking, as the unit ranked dead-last in quarterback hits allowed and allowed pressure on 23.3% of dropbacks, per Pro Football Reference. That is scary when entering a matchup with an Eagles defense whose 70 sacks last season were tied for the third-most in NFL history and who ranked first in the league in Pass Rush Win Rate.
Given how much last week's game against the Buccaneers turned on its head once they shut down Jefferson, that is also concerning, considering Philadelphia's cornerback tandem of Darius Slay and James Bradberry is arguably the best in the NFL, while its secondary as a whole was ranked third by PFF.
The Eagles barely covered as 3.5-point favorites against the Patriots last week. Still, one must consider that they faced arguably the best coach of all time, who had a whole offseason to prepare for their unique offensive attack. It was also their first game after losing their offensive and defensive coordinators from last year's team.
Philadelphia's most significant edge on the offensive side will be on the outside with its wide receiving tandem of AJ Brown and Devonta Smith. Minnesota's defense against wide receivers last season ranked last in passing yards per game (192.1), 31st in QBR (84), and 29th in completion percentage (67%). However, if the new Brian Flores-led defense plays it cautiously to respect Philadelphia's big-play passing ability, a running game that ranked second with a 74.9% run-block win rate and produced an NFL record 42 rushing touchdowns will dictate how the game is won.
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Vikings vs. Eagles best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -7 | -7 | -7 | -7 | -7 |
| -105 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
All five of our best sports betting apps are in unison with the 7-point spread, but DraftKings is the only one charging less than standard -110 juice on either side. It is somewhat surprising to see DraftKings charging less in juice to back the 1-0 team on the point spread as opposed to the team that lost last week, and this line is much higher than the -3 point spread in this meeting last year when the Eagles beat the Vikings 24-7 at home in Week 2.
Vikings vs. Eagles odds for Thursday Night Football
Vikings vs. Eagles odds analysis
Caesars' lookahead line for this game in mid-August was Eagles -6, but all of our best sports betting sites opened with higher than a touchdown spread once the Week 1 results were known. FanDuel and BetRivers were the only shops that ever got as high as +8 on Monday morning, but those lines did not last long, as Vikings backers weighed in and drove the number down to +7.5, where all sportsbooks stayed for much of Monday morning. Sharp action likely took this spread down from -7.5 to -7, as 80% of the wagers are on the Eagles, representing significant reverse line movement.
Similar to the point spread, there is no discrepancy on the 48.5-point total across our best sportsbooks, though BetRivers is the only one juiced to the Under at -115. DraftKings is already down from an opening number of 49, while all others have stayed more consistently at 48.5 through Monday.
Moneyline backers may not scoff at Philadelphia's -290 odds at DraftKings (the high end is BetMGM at -350), as Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has won 18 of his previous 19 regular season starts.
Thursday Night Football game info
- When: Thursday, Sept. 14 at 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
- How to watch: Prime Video
- Weather: 57 degrees, 2% chance of precipitation, wind 9 mph N
Vikings-Eagles prediction made 9/12/2023 at 6:39 a.m. ET
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