Our UMass-Auburn prediction for Week 1 looks at whether the Tigers can win their season opener over the Minutemen by more than five touchdowns based on the best college football odds.
Hugh Freeze, who spent four years with the Liberty Flames, assumes the role of head coach for the Auburn Tigers. One of his initial significant decisions involved a tough choice: he selected Michigan State Spartans transfer Payton Thorne as the starting quarterback over last year's starter Robby Ashford. Both quarterbacks are expected to get playing time in what will undoubtedly be a lopsided game.
After finishing the 2022 season just 1-11, the UMass Minutemen started off 2023 with a 41-30 win over New Mexico State. After seeing virtually no time on the field with the Clemson Tigers or Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, transfer quarterback Taisun Phommachanh threw for 192 yards and rushed for 96 and one touchdown in his debut with the Minutemen.
Here is our best UMass vs. Auburn prediction and college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
UMass vs. Auburn prediction: Week 1
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The Minutemen were abysmal in 2022, and just because they picked up a win over the Aggies in Week 0 doesn't mean they're going to be good in 2023. However, the 41 points scored in their season opener was more than they scored at any time during the 2022 season. When making your c ollege football Week 1 predictions, remember, they scored fewer than 20 nine times last year.
The Tigers return a lot of key defensive players and they revamped their defensive front, but this is a team that gave up at least 14 points in all but one game a season ago. That includes allowing 16 points to the Mercer Bears and San Jose State Spartans.
Phommachanh is a dual threat who could give the Tigers problems early as they try to adjust to him as a passer who can run. The Minutemen lack the offensive talent to compete with an SEC school, but they showed in Week 1 that they have a lot more going for them than they did a season ago.
The Tigers are still going to cruise to a dominant victory, but the defense is going to give up double digits just like they did in every single game one year ago. And because the Tigers do give up points, it's hard to trust a side when it comes to t he spread or total with our college football best bets for Saturday.
UMass vs. Auburn best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 7.5 | Over 7.5 | N/A | N/A | Over 9.5 |
| -110 | -104 | N/A | N/A | -110 |
Three of the five major sportsbooks are offering this line, with bet365 sitting as a huge outlier at the moment. They're currently offering a total of 9.5 for the Minutemen which is two points more than what is being offered by DraftKings and FanDuel. You may wonder if it really makes a difference since there is no key number involved, but a lot can happen which results in a team scoring eight or nine in a game.
As for where to bet, FanDuel is offering the best price at the moment, so it's a no-brainer. It's not worth waiting to try to get a better price at BetMGM or Caesars, since the FanDuel one is solid, and it is unlikely either of those other two sportsbooks offer a total lower than the one currently being presented.
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UMass vs. Auburn odds
UMass vs. Auburn odds analysis
The Tigers opened as 39.5-point favorites, and despite seeing 58% of wagers, the line has dropped all the way to 35.5. The Minutemen were one of the worst teams in college football a season ago, but they showed in Week 0, that they are much improved. Even though “much improved” doesn't mean much when you're as bad as they were, oddsmakers are clearly concerned this may be closer than originally expected.
The total opened at 51.5. Currently, you can find totals listed anywhere from 51 to 52.5. 62% of wagers are on the over, yet there hasn't been any significant movement from oddsmakers to suggest this number rising as wagers back a high-scoring game.
UMass vs. Auburn game info
- When: Saturday, Sept. 2, 3:30 PM
- Where: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 81 degrees, 7-mph winds, 17% chance of precipitation
UMass-Auburn prediction made 8/31/2023 at 10:58 a.m. ET.
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