UFC Fight Night Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for June 24 with Illia Topuria and Josh Emmett headlining the event. The main card starts up at 3:00pm ET from VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena, Jacksonville, FL.
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Ilia Topuria vs Josh Emmett Odds: UFC Fight Night Main Event
| Saturday, June 24 | UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars) |
|---|---|
| Moneyline: | Ilia Topuria -320 vs Josh Emmett +250 |
| Rounds: | 2.5 Rounds (Over +180 / Under -220) |
| Fight Time: | Main Card Starts at 3:00pm ET / 12:00pm PT |
| Arena: | VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena, Jacksonville, FL |
| TV: | ABC |
UFC Fight Night Betting Analysis
Decent week of betting for our picks last week, but my biggest regret was not playing Costa ITD over Jimmy Flick. It was the most obvious play on the UFC card, and I only played the ML in a parlay so that was money left on the table. Still a nice week, and we'll look to add to the winnings of an already solid 2023.
Grab our official plays here: http://wt.buzz/al
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Tatsuro Taira -300 v Kleydson Rodrigues +250
Taira is a big favorite in this fight, and it's justified. His takedown game and submission game is elite, and I don't think Kleydson can stay out of harms way.
He lost a split decision to CJ Vergara two fights ago, and Vergara did well against him on the ground, and Taira submitted Vergara late in 2022. Taira is undefeated and five of his last six fights he's won by submission.
Rodrigues is coming a dominant victory, but the opponent was lackluster and I don't see how Rodrigues stays off the ground. Taira's money line is a bit pricey, but if you want to take a shot on him to win by submission, I think he can get there against Rodrigues.
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Jamall Emmers -165 v Jack Jenkins +140
Very fun fight here that should be exciting, and I'm a Jack Jenkins fan mostly because I cashed on him in Contender Series and in his UFC debut, but I think he comes up just a bit short here.
I love his skillset, he's come up through a really good league in Australia, and his fight IQ is off the charts as him and his team do a great job taking advantage of his opponents weaknesses, but I think Emmers has a bit too much athleticism for Jenkins.
Emmers is 2-2 in the UFC losses against Giga Chikadze and Pat Sabatini, which aren't bad losses especially considering the loss to Giga was a split decision in Emmers debut, but his scrambling, cardio and overall game looked good in February against Akhabov.
If the fight stays on the feet, I think Emmers has the movement and speed advantage, and on the ground I think Emmers can get out of Jenkins wrestling and implement his own ground offense. I won't bet on this fight, but it will be a great scrap and I lean Emmers.
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Trevor Peek -125 v Chepe Mariscal +105
I went into this fight thinking I would bet on Peek, but I've completely changed my mind. Mariscal is stepping in on a bit of short notice from the LFA, and I loved what he showed in his last fight as he put on a great show and got the finish in the second round with great striking, ground and pound and cardio.
I think the cardio is where he pulls away from Peek in this one. Peek is a warrior and throws strikes to finish guys, and his backstory is pretty incredible, but in his UFC debut that he won by first round knockout, he put all his effort into the early finish and he got it, but he was tiring.
Both these guys are brawlers, and taking this fight to not go the distance is the best parlay piece on the card, but if Peek doesn't get Mariscal out early, I think he fades and Mariscal eventually gets the finish.
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Tabatha Ricci -125 v Gillian Robertson +105
No bets on this fight for me and I would advise everyone to stay away. Ricci likes to push the pace, and has solid cardio, she can strike, work takedowns and fight with a lot of pressure while Robertson loves working off her back searching for arm bars and other submissions.
I can see anything in this fight happening. Ricci could outwork Robertson for three rounds, or Robertson could take advantage of her aggressive fighting style and lock up a quick submission.
No opinion on the outright winner or distance, but I think this could be a really fun, entertaining fight.
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Randy Brown -230 v Wellington Turman +205
On paper, Randy Brown should dominate Turman as he has has the better skillset everywhere, but Brown just can never seem to put it together.
He won a split decision against Chaos Williams, and then barely beat a 43 year old Francisco Trinaldo in a fight he could've lost, and then he got KO'd by Jack Maddellena. Turman is 3-3 in the UFC, but his three wins are against bad opponents.
I really don't see what Turman does that well as his striking is not sharp, his wrestling is ok, but he can be taken down pretty easily, and his cardio isn't great. If Brown is fighting with the upside that he has, he should piece Turman up on the feet en route to victory, and I think he will.
He needs to put on a good performance to justify he's spot on the roster as he's fallen quite a bit the last two fights, and I think he wins a fairly boring fight that stays on the feet.
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Justin Tafa -170 v Austen Lane +145
Fight fans know the name Justin Tafa, but Austen Lane has six more pro fights than Tafa, just not in the UFC. I like Lane here, which is probably not a popular opinion, but I don't like Tafa's skill set.
He is 3-3 in the UFC with his three wins being against the worst of the worst in this division (Parker Porter, Harry Hunsucker, Juan Adams).
Austen Lane is a former NFL player who has great cardio, and I think he uses his size to close the distance against Tafa, and if he doesn't get sparked, he'll wrestle Tafa and try and get him to the ground, and if he gets it there he has a big advantage with his par power and size.
All of Tafa's UFC wins came by first round knockout and I think it shows that Tafa is a one trick pony. I'll trust Lane's natural athleticism to stay out of harms way and grind out a win in his UFC debut against Tafa, who I just don't believe in.
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Zhalgas Zhumagulov -180 v Joshua Van +155
I don't have a whole lot to say about this fight as Van is taking this fight short notice, but his last fight was in 2022, and we've seen plenty of fighters in his position have success this year coming in from “lesser” organizations and having success against UFC talent.
He's a good fighter everywhere, has finished all seven of his wins, and it should be a good fight against Zhalgas who I just don't trust.