The Baylor Bears are one of four Big 12 teams to receive a top-three seed in the NCAA Tournament. They'll begin their March Madness quest against the No. 14-seed UC Santa Barbara Gauchos. Read on for our UC Santa Barbara vs. Baylor prediction based on the top NCAAB odds.
UC Santa Barbara (27-7, 15-5 Big West) won the Big West Conference tournament as the No. 2 seed, with the three wins coming by a combined 25 points. The Gauchos are 0-4 in the NCAA Tournament this century and are looking for their second win over a KenPom top-100 team (they beat UC Irvine 73-65 on Jan. 16) this season.
Baylor (22-10, 11-7 Big 12) enters having lost four of six games, including consecutive games to Iowa State in the regular-season finale and the Big 12 Tournament quarterfinals. The Bears have made eight of the last nine NCAA Tournaments.
Here is our best UC Santa Barbara vs. Baylor prediction (odds via WynnBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
UC Santa Barbara vs. Baylor odds
UC Santa Barbara vs. Baylor prediction
Baylor is one of the more one-dimensional teams in the NCAA Tournament field, leading the Big 12 in adjusted offensive efficiency and ranking last in defensive efficiency. The Gauchos were the most potent offensive team in the Big West, and their ability to carve up a weak Baylor defense is the main reason for this solid four-star play.
UC Santa Barbara is led by dynamic point guard Ajay Mitchell, who has averaged 20 points per game over the last seven games (all wins). Mitchell is the only non-senior starter in a lineup that returned the 23rd-most minutes from last year's team.
Baylor has three elite guards, Adam Flagler, LJ Cryer, and Keyonte George, with which to find mismatches and attack opposing defenses. However, the Bears' heavy isolation sets are a big reason they rank 271st in shot selection, per ShotQuality. In addition, UCSB's defensive philosophy is to trap ball handlers in pick-and-roll situations (they rank in the top 15 nationally in double rate), which Baylor had a difficult time adjusting to in two losses to Iowa State.
Offensively, the Gauchos will look to attack the Bears with a plethora of ball screens. And if they get downhill, they will be finishing at the rim against a Baylor defense that ranks fifth-worst in near-proximity field goal percentage allowed, per Haslametrics. Lastly, UCSB can mitigate one of Baylor's biggest offensive strengths, as the Bears rank 18th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage while the Gauchos rank 72nd in offensive rebounding percentage allowed.
< i>Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.
UC Santa Barbara vs. Baylor best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +11.5 | +11.5 | +11.5 | +11 | +11 |
| -110 | -115 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
UCSB backers have plenty of +11.5s with which to choose from, but Wynn is the most alluring sportsbook given its slightly less -108 juice. Considering this number opened at +10.5, it will be interesting to see if late money on the favorites pushes it back in that direction.
UC Santa Barbara vs. Baylor odds analysis
Baylor opened as consensus 10.5-point favorites, but initial line movement went in the direction of the underdogs. As of Friday morning, the line settled back at Baylor -10.5. The Gauchos have drawn 56% of the ATS action with some late activity on the Bears.
The consensus total of 144.5 points did not last long, as the Over/Under is down as low as 142.5 at multiple sports betting sites. The Over is backed by 54% of the betting action as of Friday morning.
UC Santa Barbara vs. Baylor game info
- Date: Friday, March 17, 1:30 p.m. ET
- TV: TNT
- Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
UC Santa Barbara-Baylor pick made 3/15/2023 at 6:28 a.m. ET.
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