Week 8 picks from a “dog or pass” point of view”
Last Sunday was another rough day – the second in as many weeks – in the Tuley’s Take home office as we went 2-3 ATS with our Best Bets here and in our Circa and Westgate contest entries under the @ViewFromVegas umbrella.
But we weren’t alone. The Top 5 most-selected teams went 1-4 ATS in both the Circa Sports Million and Westgate SuperContest, so it could have been worse as we actually outperformed the field (one of the bottom-line principles of the “dog-or-pass” approach is to weed out the weaker plays, minimizing losses on a bad day/weekend). In addition, the eight most-bet sides at DraftKings (all with more than 70% of the bets) went 0-8 ATS, with the Bills, Raiders, Buccaneers, 49ers, Browns, Lions, Packers and Rams all going down in flames.
Our 2-team, 6-point teaser portfolio didn’t bail us out like it sometimes does as we hit with Falcons +8.5/Colts +8.5, but all other combos using the Lions, Dolphins and 49ers came up short despite the bonus points.For newcomers to this column, I’m a “dog-or-pass bettor,” and my breakdown of each game will usually be from that point of view as we try to determine if the dog is getting enough points to make them a play – or if I recommend passing on the game, which is a very valid and valuable betting decision when trying to come out ahead against the books! Even if I don’t have an official Best Bet, I’ll still give my recommended “pool play strategy” for those in contests where you have to pick every game.
We have a full 16-game card this weekend (no byes), so let’s get right to it.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills (-8.5)
The Buccaneers are 3-3 but have exceeded our expectations this season, as they’ve been competitive in most games. But this is more of a fade of the Bills (underperforming at 4-3), who we successfully beat on Sunday with the Patriots +8.5 in the 29-25 upset. I hate repeating myself – oh, who am I kidding? I love repeating myself with old stories that I tell my wife and soulmate over and over again, so why not here? I’ll just print what I wrote in this column last week: “Besides, as we’ve written several times, the Bills (despite three blowout wins earlier this season) tend to let teams stick around.”