The NFL awards markets tend to feature a few positive expected value bets throughout the summer. As the regular season nears, a few golden opportunities have dried up; specifically, long prices on Trey Lance and Jalen Hurts that I liked. Yet, there are still two players I would bet on in this market.
When analyzing the MVP market, it’s important to acknowledge the prerequisites for winning the award. It has to be a quarterback, and they have to win a lot of games. A quarterback has won MVP in 14 of the last 15 seasons, and the last non-QB to win was Adrian Peterson in 2012, who was eight yards shy of the single-season rushing record. The last five MVPs have won at least 13 games, and the previous MVP to win fewer than 10 games was Barry Sanders in 1997.
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Tom Brady (+1000)