With only eight games on the slate this evening, our pickings are slim when it comes to NRFIs. However, there are still two spots that the books are undervaluing. Let’s get right into my top two NFRI plays of the slate.
We are getting a very nice price on this NRFI because we will be fading some of the best hitters in baseball. However, what the oddsmakers are failing to realize is that the two men on the mound are just as good when it comes to putting up zeroes in the first inning. Jose Suarez will take the ball in the top of the first, and he will have an arduous task in front of him as the Yankees rank fourth in first-inning runs per game on the road. Their projected top three is also daunting as Suarez should match up with LeMahieu, Judge, and Stanton. Although, Suarez has been excellent in the early going. Through 14 starts, he holds a 1.29 ERA and 0.93 WHIP, with only two home runs surrendered in the first inning this year. So while the top of the first may seem scary, Suarez is much more capable of getting out of it clean than he is being given credit.
Frankie Montas will then take over in the bottom of the first, and he’s coming into this outing off his best start as a Yankee. His last time out, he held the Mets quiet as he allowed just two runs and struck out six over five-plus innings of work. He’ll need to carry that momentum into this outing, as the first inning will be challenging. He is slated to face three familiar foes in David Fletcher, Shohei Ohtani, and Mike Trout. Fletcher is hitting just .158 against Montas in his career, and Trout is not much better as he’s gone just five 3 for 16 with five strikeouts. However, the man he’ll need to be wary of is Ohtani. Ohtani is hitting .429 off Montas with three homers in 21 at-bats. However, Montas has been decent in the first inning this season as he holds a 3.02 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over 19 starts. His numbers should provide some positive regression against Ohtani.