Tigers-Rangers prediction: Picks, odds on Monday, June 26

The Texas Rangers will look to close out June by winning another series when they welcome the Detroit Tigers to Globe Life Field for a four-game set starting Monday. It'll be a battle of mercurial lefties on the mound, as Matthew Boyd (5-5, 5.37 ERA) will toe the rubber for the Tigers while Andrew Heaney (5-4, 3.98 ERA) gets the start for the Rangers. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET.

Texas is a -195 moneyline favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Detroit checks in as +165 underdogs. The total is set at 9.

Tigers

Out: OF Riley Greene (stress reaction in left fibula), OF Akil Baddoo (right quad strain), SP Eduardo Rodriguez (left index finger pulley rupture), SP Alex Faedo (right middle finger discomfort)

Rangers

Out: RP Jose Leclerc (right ankle sprain), UTIL Brad Miller (right oblique strain), SP Jacob deGrom (Tommy John Surgery)

Matthew Boyd vs. Andrew Heaney

Monday will mark Boyd's 15th start of the season, which will equal his total from 2021 — the last year he worked as a full-time starter. He's looked like he's turned a corner lately, as he's gone six innings in his past two starts, and is coming off an outing where stuck out seven and allowed just two runs in a win over the Royals. Boyd currently ranks in the 70th percentile in hard-hit rate, along with being in the 86th percentile in curveball spin and the 93rd percentile in fastball spin – when he's elevating his fastball and getting his breaking balls down under the strike zone, he can have success and rack up whiffs. He's struggled against the Rangers in his career, though, having posted a 6.39 ERA in 10 career appearances against them, nine of which were starts.

With Jacob deGrom out for the rest of the season, there's been even more pressure on Heaney and the Rangers' rotation to produce, and thus far, he's been able to answer the call. The 32-year-old lefty has a 3.98 ERA in 14 starts and is .2 of an inning away from topping his inning total from last year. Heaney's coming off his first win since May 27, allowing two runs over 5 2/3 innings against the White Sox last time out – with both runs coming on solo home runs in the sixth inning. Heaney's turned in a solid month of June and has given up three of fewer earned runs in eight straight appearances. He ranks in the 54th percentile in hard-hit rate, but also ranks in the 22nd percentile in exit velocity and the 31st percentile in expected ERA.

While Boyd and Heaney are both coming off strong starts, I'm still backing the over. The Rangers have the best team average (.272) and BAIBP (.324) in baseball, while the Tigers have cleared this over in four of their last seven games. That, coupled with both teams' pitching uncertainty, makes me think tonight will be a high-scoring game.

Pick: Over 9

Give me the Rangers, in large part due to their incredible offense. The Rangers have one of the most complete lineups in baseball, and should make life tough for Boyd from the first pitch tonight.

Pick: Rangers

  
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