The ninth-seeded TCU Horned Frogs and the eighth-seeded Utah State Aggies face off in a late Friday tipoff during the first round of the NCAA Tournament, and we have you covered with our TCU vs. Utah State first-round prediction based on the best March Madness odds.
The TCU Horned Frogs' Big 12 Tournament journey concluded in the conference quarterfinals. Despite initially trailing 16-0, they outscored the Houston Cougars 45-44 for the remainder of the game, but their comeback ultimately fell short. Having been one of three teams to defeat the Cougars this season, the Horned Frogs are determined to reach the Sweet 16 for the first time. They enter Friday's Round of 64 matchup as slight favorites.
The No. 8 Utah State Aggies, with an impressive 9-0 record in games decided by five or fewer points, earned a spot in the NCAA Tournament as one of six Mountain West Conference teams. Despite this a chievement, their historical performance in March Madness is discouraging, with a daunting 1-19 record.
As part of our March Madness predictions, here are our best TCU vs. Utah State prediction and college basketball picks (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
TCU vs. Utah State odds
TCU (No. 9) vs. Utah State (No. 8) prediction: Midwest Region
Best odds: -118 via FanDuel
Not only is Great Osobor arguably the best name of any player in the NCAA Tournament, but he is a physical specimen worth tuning in for. Osobor is a 255-pound monster who leads the Aggies in four primary categories (scoring, rebounding, offensive rebounding, and blocks).
He does a great job of staying out of foul trouble for a big man, playing the sixth-highest percentage in minutes of any Mountain West player, finishing the regular season ranked eighth in both offensive and defensive rebounding rate in the league.
Osobor will have his hands full against a TCU frontcourt that rebounds 35.5% of its misses (top 20 nationally). But this game will likely be played at a breakneck pace (TCU's 71.6 possessions per game was the fastest pace in the Big 12), which should give Osobor ample opportunity to pad his stats.
It's our most confident five-star play, as Osobor has totaled seven-plus rebounds in six of his last eight games. He also played 10 games against top-40 KenPom teams (San Diego State, New Mexico, Colorado State, Boise State, Nevada), exceeding this projected rebounding total in eight.
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TCU vs. Utah State best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 8.5 rebounds | Over 6.5 rebounds | N/A | N/A | Over 8.5 rebounds |
| +100 | -118 | N/A | N/A | +100 |
The gap between FanDuel's O/U and that of DraftKings and bet365 is eye-popping, as, typically, there isn't a two-rebound range between shops on a particular player's rebound prop.
The plus-money odds at DraftKings and bet365 are tempting as Osobor has grabbed nine-plus rebounds in five of his last 10 games. However, FanDuel is not breaking the bank by charging -118 odds for an O/U of 6.5, as a $10 wager would pay out $18.47. The -118 odds, via our odds converter, imply a probability of 54.13%
TCU vs. Utah State spread & Over/Under analysis
There is just a half-point range on the spread across our best sports betting sites, as FanDuel, BetMGM, and DraftKings are TCU -3.5, while Caesars and bet365 have TCU at -3. The early betting splits are 59/41 in support of the favored Horned Frogs, who have covered 19 of their 33 games.
Most of our top sp orts betting sites are in unison with an O/U of 150.5, while Caesars is on the high end at 151.5. The line has increased significantly at most sportsbooks, from 146.5 to 150.5 at DraftKings, 146 to 151.5 at BetRivers, and 146.5 to 150.5 at bet365. Sharp action is likely driving this reverse line movement, as 56% of the early wagers have backed the Under.
TCU vs. Utah State game info
- When: Friday, March 22
- Tip-off: 9:55 p.m. ET
- Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Ind.
- How to watch: TBS
TCU-Utah State prediction made Monday at 8:01 p.m. ET.
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