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Today’s Best Bets
Here are today’s best NBA bets.
NBA Same Game Parlay Picks
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
- Leg 1: Brook Lopez Over 12.5 Points (-117)
- Leg 2: Jrue Holiday Over 6.5 Assists (+106)
- Leg 3: Joel Embiid Over 10.5 Rebounds (-142)
This is the only highly anticipated matchup for tonight’s slate. The 76ers and Bucks both have 40 wins on the year and these two teams could face off deep into the playoffs this year.
Brook Lopez has been the third leading scorer on the Bucks this season. He’s added 14.7 points per game on 51% from the field. But his line is sitting at 12.5 tonight. Lopez has hit 13 or more points in four of his last five and seven of his last ten games. He’s also attempted at least four threes in his last three games and has taken at least 12 shot attempts in four of his last five games.
Hopefully, it’ll be Jrue Holiday passing the ball to Lopez. Holiday has averaged 7.2 assists per game this season. He has hit seven or more assists in four of his last five and seven of his last ten. He’s also hit this number in nearly 60% of games this season.
Lastly, it’s undeniable that both of these two teams are terrific defenses. There will be some bricks in tonight’s game. Embiid should clean that up. Embiid has earned 11 or more rebounds in four of his last five and seven of his last ten games. He’s added 10.4 rebounds per game this season but has reached 11 or more rebounds in 51% of games this year. He only had eight in Philadelphia’s loss to Dallas. There were a ton of points scored in that game. He’ll bounce back on the glass tonight.
Parlay Odds: +480
- Jason Radowitz
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NBA Game Picks
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Philadelphia 76ers
These two Eastern Conference heavyweights have met twice this season, and both games were contentious. Expect more of the same tonight.
The Bucks are the hottest team in hoops, having won an astonishing 16 straight games dating back to January 23rd. Over this same span, Milwaukee is far and away the NBA’s best team in Pts/Poss differential– but the Sixers aren’t so far behind at 6th. Philly’s been frustrating to bet on lately (1-3 ATS this past week), and we (me) didn’t have the best of luck with them in our ‘Best Bets’ article last Saturday. Still, the team continues to be highly rated despite their recent losses, and they have been the best offensive team on the road.
Milwaukee has been excellent lately and has played especially well at home this year (20-11-1 ATS, 27-5 SU). But we’re not playing the team, we’re playing the number. These two teams have a history of playing each other close, and the 76ers aren’t so far behind in the NBA’s hierarchy. Further, neither team has a glaring matchup advantage in this contest, and Sixers’ C Joel Embiid will arguably be the best player in the game tonight (see here for 538’s RAPTOR Player Ratings). Let’s take the points while we still can– back Philly to keep this game close, having an outside chance of winning outright.
Bet: 76ers +5.5 (-110)
- Tommy Jurgens
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First Basket Scorer
Detroit Pistons vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
The Pistons travel to Cleveland to take on the Cavaliers on Saturday. With both of these teams at opposite ends of the Eastern Conference standings, the intrigue for the game may be low. However, the intrigue on the race for the First Basket is as high as ever.
The Pistons remain one of the worst teams at scoring First Baskets in the league, doing so at under 40 percent. In previous matchups with Cleveland the last two years, they've struggled against the size of the front court. It would make sense to focus on one of Cleveland's skilled bigs, but I'm going in a different direction.
I like Donovan Mitchell to record the First Basket in this game. Detroit gives up first field goals to opposing shooting guards in over 25 percent of their games. Mitchell is more than just a regular shooting guard, as he leads the Cavaliers in scoring. He also leads them in first field goal scoring.
This is a matchup of strength versus weakness. You won't get crazy long numbers, but it's too strong of a play to pass up.
Pick: 0.25u on Donovan Mitchell (+390)
- Jason Radowitz
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NBA Prop Bets
Giannis Antetokounmpo UNDER 43.5 Points/Rebounds (-104)
This is the matchup of the night, as two Eastern-Conference powerhouses face off in Milwaukee. The Bucks are absolutely on fire, winning an incredible 16 straight. This streak has moved them up from third place all the way to the top spot in the conference. The 76ers have also been one of the better teams recently and moved into the top half of the conference over the last couple of months.
There are many matchups we'll want to watch, including Antetokounmpo posting up against Joel Embiid. Embiid and Antetokounmpo are second and third respectively in the MVP race, so you know they'll be out to prove something.
Antetokounmpo has put up great numbers against Philly with 46 points and 27 rebounds in two games. That averages to about seven points lower than the prop total, so that's too high of a difference to take the over.
- John Supowitz