Red Sox-Twins prediction: Picks, odds on Tuesday, June 20

After picking up a series opening win over the Twins last night, the suddenly surging Red Sox will look to make it two in row tonight in the second game of a four-game series. First pitch is set for 7:40 p.m. ET.

The Red Sox will send Kutter Crawford (1-3, 4.20 ERA) to the mound, while the Twins will counter with Bailey Ober (4-3, 2.65 ERA). The Twins are -140 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Red Sox are +120 underdogs. The total is set at 8.5.

Red Sox

Out: SP Tanner Houck (facial fracture), RP John Schreiber (right teres major strain), RP Joely Rodriguez (left shoulder inflammation), INF Yu Chang (left hamate fracture), RP Richard Bleier (left shoulder inflamation), SS Trevor Story (right UCL surgery)

Twins

Day to day: Michael A. Taylor (head contusion)
Out: RP Jorge Lopez (mental health), SP Kenta Maeda (right triceps strain), 2B Jorge Polanco (left hamstring strain), RP Caleb Thielbar (right oblique strain), RP Cole Sands (right shoulder impingement)

Kutter Crawford vs. Bailey Ober

This season has been a bit of an interesting one for Crawford. The 27-year-old has a 1.66 ERA in 21 2/3 innings out of the bullpen, but an unsightly 7.11 ERA over 19 innings as a starter. With Houck and Chris Sale out (and Nick Pivetta and Corey Kluber in the bullpen), Crawford will get another shot trying to establish he's a viable starting option for the Red Sox. That said, he has some strong advanced metrics, ranking in the 92nd percentile in exit velocity, 88th percentile in walk rate and 99th percentile in chase rate. He allowed four runs in four innings his last time out against Boston.

Ober's coming off a strong start, allowing two runs (both on solo homers) in six solid innings against the Brewers. It was his fourth start this season where he allowed two or fewer runs over six innings. Ober ranks in the 94th percentile in chase rate and the 71st percentile in hard-hit rate.

I'm backing the over here, just because there's a lot of uncertainty surrounding Crawford. As mentioned above, he's lights out when he comes out of the bullpen, but hasn't been able to figure out how to translate that success into his starts. That, coupled with Ober having allowed multiple runs in his last starts, has me leaning towards the over.

Pick: Over 8.5

While the Twins have the clear advantage on the mound, their offense hasn't been able to do much lately, as they haven't scored more than four runs in a week. Until they prove they can hang with Boston, I'm picking the Sox.

Pick: Red Sox

  
Read Full Article