Red Sox-Twins prediction: Picks, odds on Thursday, June 22

The Boston Red Sox (39-36) and Minnesota Twins (37-38) will close out their four-game series on Thursday afternoon. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET from Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Twins are -165 moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, making the Red Sox +140 underdogs with the over/under set at nine.

Red Sox

Day-to-Day: C Reese McGuire (oblique), 3B Pablo Reyes (abdomen)

Out: SP Corey Kluber (shoulder), SP Tanner Houck (face), RP Joely Rodriguez (shoulder), SP Chris Sale (shoulder), RP Richard Bleier (shoulder), RP John Schreiber (shoulder), 3B Yu Chang (wrist), RP Zack Kelly (elbow), RP Wyatt Mills (elbow), 2B Trevor Story (elbow), SS Adalberto Mondesi (knee)

Twins

Out: RP Jorge Lopez (undisclosed), 2B Jorge Polanco (hamstring), RP Caleb Thielbar (oblique), SP Cole Sands (shoulder), SS Nick Gordon (leg), RP Jorge Alcala (forearm), SP Tyler Mahle (elbow), SP Kenta Maeda (triceps), SP Chris Paddock (elbow)

Justin Garza vs. Joe Ryan

Justin Garza (0-1, 3.46 ERA) will make his first career start after 33 total appearances with the Red Sox and Cleveland Guardians over the last couple seasons. He'll likely toss an inning or two before giving way to Brandon Walter, who's making his season debut.

Joe Ryan (7-4, 3.30 ERA) is in his third season with the Twins and will make his 15th start of 2023. Ryan got off to a strong start to this year but allowed at least five runs in two of his last four appearances. In his last time out, he allowed six runs on seven hits and no walks with seven strikeouts over seven innings in a loss to the Detroit Tigers.

Ryan is not throwing his best recently, and it's tough to know what to expect from Walter, who's likely to see the most innings among the Twins pitchers. He's been good throughout his minor league career until this season where Walter brings in a 6.28 ERA through 13 appearances and 12 starts in AAA in 2023.

Pick: Over 9

Even if half the last four starts haven't gone great, I have a ton more trust with my money in Ryan than a pitcher making his MLB debut after struggling in AAA. The Red Sox have the better offense, but let's go with the Twins to pick up a victory and split the season series.

Pick: Twins

  
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