Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa
Crystal Palace welcome Aston Villa to Selhurst Park for this Saturday fixture. Both of these clubs are mid-table sides that had expectations of moving up to the top half this season. Palace have had a lukewarm start to the season if we just look at the points total. One point through two matches, but so much of that is the quality of their opposition. They lost 2-0 to Arsenal at home, a game in which they probably should have taken a point from (xG 1.2-1.4). Their matchday 2 fixture was away at Anfield, which is an incredibly tough result to go get. They pulled off a 1-1 draw that they didn’t really deserve (1.6-2.2). Regardless though, it was a pretty impressive performance away to Liverpool. I thought Palace played pretty well all things considered, and Villa are undoubtedly a step down from these opponents. Palace were an above average side last season, putting up a NPxGD of +4.4, which ranked 6th in the Prem. To get to 6th, you have to beat av erage to below-average teams at home. That’s what we have Saturday.
Aston Villa come into this matchup sitting on 3 points, after their most recent nail biting victory over Everton last weekend. It was a deserved win (xG 2.7-1.4), but they almost blew it late on. It was needed however, after losing away 2-0 to Bournemouth. This was a team that lost to Man City 4-0 in what looked like a casual practice for the defending champs. Based on strength of opponent, I would say their matches have been incredibly easy thus far. Bournemouth might be the worst in the league and Everton are no higher than 15th. Palace are probably 10th, and you could argue higher. On top of this, they are coping with Diego Carlos rupturing his Achilles. He was their big offseason signing, coming in from Sevilla. Steven Gerrard will be forced to put Tyrone Mings back in at CB, in what looks to be a contentious relationship a bit. Given the injury, the data, and the strength of opponent, I think this all adds up to a Villa road loss come Saturday.