Villa open their home campaign of the 2022-2023 season welcoming the Toffees to Villa Park Saturday. This has been a matchup lately that Villa have liked, shutting out Everton in it’s last 3 meetings. Everton haven’t beaten the Villans since 2016. Villa are coming off a very disappointing result, losing their opening match 2-0 to Bournemouth. The Cherries are one of the newly promoted sides from the Championship. They were projected to finish bottom and Villa were a under the radar favorite of many prior to the season. If we look a little closer, the game should have probably been a draw (0.59-0.49 xG in favo r of Bournemouth). I do think it’s important not to overreact to results week by week, especially in week 1. I thought Villa’s defense played rather well for conceding twice. They had 66% possession, twice the shots as their opponents, but couldn’t create good enough chances. At home in front of a buzzing Villa faithful, I expect them to find the net in this one.
Everton started their season with a 1-0 loss away at Stamford Bridge. Really one of the more brutal watches of the weekend. It sounds boring, and was it ever. Chelsea got their PK to end the half, and basically ran the clock out after that. For the Toffees, it really never felt like they were going to score. The xG reflects that with the Blues winning it 1.9-0.5. Last week I bet Chelsea, mainly because of the lack of punch in Everton’s attack. DCL will be out again, and they really don’t have a suitable replacement as of yet. Anthony Gordon is a lively young player, but he’s no striker. I see the Toffees continue to struggle in the attacking third unless additions are made or DCL comes back. Villa’s defense is no Chelsea, but it should still be above average. This feels like a Villa win and another Villa clean sheet. I will back them -120 on the moneyline.
Southampton vs Leeds United
In my season preview, I wrote how bearish I was on Southampton. I highlighted the fact that they did not add enough pieces to bolster their squad, and were likely too young to have a successful season. They started off well away to Tottenham, grabbing the 1st goal, but crumbled after that. The 4-1 loss was harsh, but did lose it on xG 1.6-0.4. Spurs were impressive in their pace and their intensity. It was just too much for the Saints. I really do struggle with them and how they are going to score goals. Their defense is lacking, so it’s not like we can expect clean sheets. The attack a lot of the time comes down to a James Ward-Prowse free kick. They have talent, but are missing a striker. Ralph Hasenhuttl is a quality manager though, and he will get something out of the squad. I just continue to worry how this side is going to win games.