Predicting Landing Spots for the Top 10 NBA Free Agents

The NBA Draft has come and gone, which means all eyes now shift to free agency!

On Friday, June 30 at 6 p.m ET, the moratorium period begins. During this time, teams and players can agree to contracts which will be finalized on July 6. I'll be grading all of the major deals that break live Friday night on the DK Nation Twitter account, so stay tuned for that.

In the meantime, let's make some predictions.

While the 2023 free agency class lacks the typical elite talent at the top of the board, there are still plenty of big-time players who can immediately help teams contend. In this article, I'm going to predict landing spots for the top 10 free agents on the board.


1. Kyrie Irving

Irving finds himself in an interesting situation.

The All-Star's talent is undeniable, but his track record with the Nets, Celtics, and Cavs – every team he's played with, basically – has left a majority of the league wary of pursuing him.

That being said, the Mavericks can't afford to be picky. Dallas shipped out valuable assets to acquire Kyrie prior to last year's trade deadline. While that obviously didn't work out, resulting in a late-season collapse, Mark Cuban and Nico Harrison almost HAVE to re-sign Irving and give it another try.

Production was not the issue with Kyrie in Dallas, as he averaged 26.9 points, 6.0 assists and 5.0 rebounds as a Maverick. The fit alongside Luka Doncic is certainly questionable, but at the end of the day, talent wins in this league.

The only other “contender” for Kyrie feels like the Lakers due to Irving's obvious history with LeBron James. However, L.A. doesn't even seem like a realistic landing spot for the star guard due to financial restrictions.

It's typically smart to expect the unexpected when it comes to Irving, but this time, all signs point towards a return to Texas.


2. James Harden

For a long time, it felt like a return to Houston was inevitable for the Beard. It's clearly the place Harden enjoys being the most, along with the fact that he found immense individual success there.

However, over the last few weeks, the narrative surrounding his free agency plans have drastically shifted. Multiple reports from respected sources have implied that Harden will likely return to Philadelphia for another shot at contending with Joel Embiid.

I don't necessarily think it's the done deal that some believe it to be, as the Rockets will probably make a pitch of some sorts to their former superstar. That said, in the end, Harden's drive to compete for a championship should result in him running it back with the Sixers.

I wouldn't expect a traditional four-year max contract for Harden. We've heard reports of a team-friendly deal being discussed, so something short-term seems realistic.


3. Fred VanVleet

This is where things start to get interesting. Both Irving and Harden are widely expected to re-sign with their current teams, but VanVleet's prospects appear to be completely up in the air.

There's always a chance he returns to Toronto, but it feels like it's time for both sides to part ways. For a while, the thought of landing with a contender seemed realistic for the 29-year-old point guard. However, the number of good teams with cap space is slim, so it would likely have to be a sign-and-trade.

While that's not completely out of the question, I actually think VanVleet's chances of landing with a “bad team” on a short-term, high AAV (Average Annual Value) deal are much stronger.

The Rockets have been linked to him for a while now, with new coach Ime Udoka reportedly “coveting” the veteran guard.

I understand the fit may not make a ton of sense on paper after the Rockets selected Amen Thompson fourth overall in the NBA Draft last week. Thompson is widely believed to be the point guard of the future in Houston, but learning under a veteran with championship experience for two-three years could be extremely beneficial for his development.


4. Khris Middleton

I've changed my prediction for Middleton three times since I began constructing this article, which demonstrates how real the possibility of him leaving Milwaukee is.

The soon-to-be 32-year-old turned down a $40 million player option, which was… a decision. His camp must feel like a massive long-term contract is out there. That could be true, but declining $40 million after averaging just 15.1 points per game throughout an injury-riddled season is certainly a bold decision.

All of that said, I expect multiple teams to be heavily interested in the veteran wing this offseason. Milwaukee would obviously love to bring him back, but he could also be an intriguing fit for Sacramento or Houston for a myriad of reasons.

The Kings could look at Middleton as the perfect final piece for their puzzle, and the Rockets could perceive him as an ideal veteran leader to kickstart their rebuild.

In the end, I think familiarity and comfort will win out.

Middleton has spent the last 10 years in Milwaukee. He's built lasting connections there, has started a family in the city, and also won a championship just a few years ago. It's important to remember the personal aspect of these decisions for players, and in this case, I expect it to play a significant role in his final call.


5. Kyle Kuzma

It feels like the Kings are primed to do SOMETHING big after opening up a ton of cap space by offloading Richaun Holmes' contract.

First thing's first, I'll acknowledge that Kuzma's fit in Sacramento likely wouldn't be as seamless as Khris Middleton or Draymond Green. However, he will probably be cheaper, and he absolutely fits the Kings' timeline.

Despite bowing out in the first round to Golden State, the Kings' front office has to be thrilled with the progress they saw over the course of last season. De'Aaron Fox took the next step and was statistically the most clutch player in the NBA. Domantas Sabonis led the league in rebounds and established himself as one of the most dominant centers in the league. Keegan Murray looked terrific as a rookie, Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk excelled in their roles, etc.

However, one thing this team clearly needs is a third-option wing who can create his own shot consistently. That's where Kuzma steps in.

The 27-year-old forward averaged a career-high 21.2 points per game in Washington last season. Efficiency isn't necessarily his strong suit, but he would fill an obvious need on this roster and does have plenty of experience playing alongside other stars.

Kuzma could be the last piece of the puzzle as the Kings look to finally earn their status as a contender.


6. Draymond Green

This feels like it's down to a two-horse race, and in reality, one horse is MILES ahead of the other.

In fact, I'm calling the race. It's over.

The concept of Green to Sacramento is intriguing, and I'm sure the Kings would love to add him to their already-fantastic core, but it's just not realistic. Draymond has spent his entire career in Golden State, and has enjoyed enormous success there.

I would understand him moving on if the Warriors were pivoting towards a complete rebuild, but the acquisition of Chris Paul indicates the exact opposite. It feels like new GM Mike Dunleavy is entirely comfortably giving his aging core another year or two to contend before breaking it up.

The Warriors are in a tricky financial situation, to say the least, but swapping Jordan Poole for Paul does give them a bit of long-term flexibility to work with. I'm not sure exactly what the money will look like, but it would be a massive shock if Green is in a different jersey next year.


7. Jerami Grant

All eyes were on Damian Lillard's meeting with Portland's front office Monday afternoon, and while we haven't heard an official statement from Dame, it sounds like both his and the Blazers' stance has not changed.

  
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