Today’s Pitcher Prop Picks For August 9
WagerTalk MLB player prop Expert Andy Lang provides his MLB pitcher prop picks and predictions for Wednesday, August 9 with odds provided by DraftKings. Get his best pitcher prop picks before first pitch!
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Pitcher Prop Prediction 1: Bailey Ober Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-125)
Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Bailey Ober is 6-5 on the season with a 3.21 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 98 strikeouts across 103.2 innings of work.
He has cleared this recorded out’s line in 13 of 18 games (72% success rate) despite falling short in each of his last two games.
This includes a start against tonight’s opponent the Detroit Tigers where he pitched six full innings while allowing three runs on five hits.
Current Tiger sluggers are only 10-44 (.227) against Ober with only one home run. The Tigers have struggled against right-handed pitching as they rank 28th in on-base percentage and 29th in wRC+ on the season and 25th & 28th respectively over the last 30 days.
Ober has only fallen short of pitching a full five innings in once in his 18 starts. We just him to keep enough in the tank to record a few more outs against vulnerable lineup that he’s had success against in the past. Take his outs over with plenty of confidence tonight in Detroit.
Pitcher Prop Prediction 2: Merrill Kelly Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (-105)
Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Merrill Kelly is having a great season with a 9-5 record, 3.21 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 118 strikeouts across 112 innings of work.
He has cleared 17.5 outs in 13 of his 19 starts for a 68% success rate to the over. That hasn’t been the case against the Los Angeles Dodgers where he fell short with only 11 & 17 outs recorded in two early season outings.
It makes sense, considering current Dodgers are 57-188 (.303) with 8 home runs and 20 RBI. This includes key sluggers like Mookie Betts 7-27 (.259), Freddie Freeman 7-21 (.333), Max Muncy 12-30 (.400) and Will Smith 8-25 (.320).
The Dodgers have feasted on right-handed pitching all season long as they rank 1st in on-base percentage and 4th in wRC+.
They are also on fire with 64 combined runs scored in their last 8 games. This line feels like it’s based more on Kelly’s track record as opposed to the opponent. Take a shot on his under 17.5 outs with -105 odds.
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