Today’s Pitcher Prop Picks For August 4
WagerTalk MLB player prop Expert Andy Lang provides his MLB pitcher prop picks and predictions for Friday, August 4 with odds provided by DraftKings. Get his best pitcher prop picks before first pitch!
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Pitcher Prop Prediction 1: James Paxton Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-125)
Boston Red Sox starting pitcher James Paxton is quietly having a stellar season with a 6-2 record, 3.34 ERA and 80 strikeouts across only 70 innings of work.
Paxton has built up his longevity, pitching 6+ innings in 6 of his last 9 outings. This includes his best start of the 2023 campaign that came on June 30th against the Toronto Blue Jays where he tossed 7.2 scoreless innings en route to a 5-0 victory.
Admittedly, the Jays lineup has feasted against left-handed pitching, especially in the last 30 days. However, their lineup takes a serious step back with arguably their best hitter Bo Bichette on the shelf and Paxton has dominated all the other key hitters.
This includes, Vladimir Guerrero Jr 2-11 (.182), Matt Chapman 0-17 (.000), George Springer 9-40 (.225) and Whit Merrifield 4-17 (.235).
Look for the Sox to lean on Paxton to take some pressure of the bullpen and eat some innings against a team he has already had success against. We only need six innings out of him, making -125 a favorable price.
Pitcher Prop Prediction 2: Merrill Kelly Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-140)
Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Merrill Kelly is 9-5 on the season with a 3.23 ERA and 109 strikeouts across 106 innings pitched.
Merrill has been impeccable when it comes to clearing this total with 17+ outs recorded in 13 of 18 games for a 72% success rate to the over.
He landed on 15 outs exactly in four of the other five outing and only fallen short of that in his first start of the season. The Minnesota Twins lineup does have solid number against right-handed pitching but have only scored 12 runs in their last four games.
Current Twins bat only 7-33 (.212) with two home runs across 39 plate appearances. Kelly also prefers to pitch on the road with an ERA nearly on run better than at home.
Target Field is a pitcher-friendly ballpark and based on the success rate of Kelly, over 16.5 is the play here.
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