The Pittsburgh Pirates (+155) visit BayCare Ballpark to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-190) on Saturday, March 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in Clearwater.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Pirates vs Phillies Over/Under is 11.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Pirates are 1-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 3-1 ATS.
Pirates vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Pirates vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s Spring Training matchup with 70.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Pirates vs Phillies and all games with BetMGM
Get up to $1,000 First Bet Offer
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ji-wan Bae has hit the Runs Over in his last 3 games (+5.65 Units / 188% ROI)
- Josh VanMeter has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jose Godoy has hit the Singles Under in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Kevin Padlo has hit the RBIs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Bligh Madris has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.35 Units / 89% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+3.05 Units / 102% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+1.25 Units / 42% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 56 of their last 98 games (+12.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 28 of their last 47 away games (+6.85 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 61 games (+6.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 36 games (+6.20 Units / 16% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 77 of their last 129 games (+16.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+15.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 70 of their last 121 games (+14.08 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+10.93 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 62 games at home (+10.35 Units / 14% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 3-2 against the Run Line (-0.2 Units / -2.72% ROI).
- 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.9 Units / -37.25% ROI
- 4-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.95 Units / 52.21% ROI
- 1-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.25 Units / -60.19% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 3-1 against the Run Line (+2.45 Units / 50.52% ROI).
- 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 22.47% ROI
- 3-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.75 Units / 36.84% ROI
- 1-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.05 Units / -50% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Rich Hill has thrown elevated pitches 52% of the time (481/930) when behind in the count since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 99th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (499/1,137) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
19 of Rich Hill’s 66 breaking pitch strikeouts (29%) were backdoor last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 97th Percentile.
Rich Hill threw his curveball 47% of the time (938/1,990) last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola’s K:BB ratio was 8.0 (241/30) last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.7 — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola walked 7 of 299 batters (2%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola had a first-pitch strike rate of 70% (582/836) last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.