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Leagues Tennis - ATP Challenger Francavilla al Mare - R16

5:00 AM (5/7/2025)FINAL ML SPREAD TOTAL
Kimmer Coppejans
2
-112
-1.5
(+223)
O 2.5
(+121)
Marco Trungelliti
0
-108
+1.5
(-276)
U 2.5
(-145)

Moneyline Movements: 21

Spread Movements: 2

Total Sets Movements: None

Sportsbook Edge
+4.75%

Kimmer Coppejans Win Probability: 52.83%

Marco Trungelliti Win Probability: 51.92%

52.83%
51.92%
7:00 AM (5/7/2025)FINAL ML SPREAD TOTAL
Kyrian Jacquet
1
-170
-1.5
(+152)
O 2.5
(+131)
Dominic Stephan Stricker
2
+141
+1.5
(-184)
U 2.5
(-158)

Moneyline Movements: 8

Spread Movements: None

Total Sets Movements: None

Sportsbook Edge
+4.45%

Kyrian Jacquet Win Probability: 62.96%

Dominic Stephan Stricker Win Probability: 41.49%

62.96%
41.49%
11:00 AM (5/7/2025) ML SPREAD TOTAL
Carlos Sanchez Jover
+110
+1.5
(-244)
O 2.5
(+119)
Mathys Erhard
-132
-1.5
(+199)
U 2.5
(-143)

Moneyline Movements: 9

Spread Movements: None

Total Sets Movements: None

Sportsbook Edge
+4.52%

Carlos Sanchez Jover Win Probability: 47.62%

Mathys Erhard Win Probability: 56.90%

47.62%
56.90%
5:00 AM (5/8/2025) ML SPREAD TOTAL
Mark Lajal
-158
-1.5
(+152)
O 2.5
(+140)
Jacopo Berrettini
+131
+1.5
(-185)
U 2.5
(-168)

Moneyline Movements: 22

Spread Movements: None

Total Sets Movements: None

Sportsbook Edge
+4.53%

Mark Lajal Win Probability: 61.24%

Jacopo Berrettini Win Probability: 43.29%

61.24%
43.29%
5:00 AM (5/8/2025) ML SPREAD TOTAL
Alexey Vatutin
+272
+1.5
(+106)
O 2.5
(+167)
Valentin Vacherot
-343
-1.5
(-128)
U 2.5
(-203)

Moneyline Movements: 4

Spread Movements: None

Total Sets Movements: None

Sportsbook Edge
+4.31%

Alexey Vatutin Win Probability: 26.88%

Valentin Vacherot Win Probability: 77.43%

26.88%
77.43%
5:00 AM (5/8/2025) ML SPREAD TOTAL
Timofey Skatov
-371
-1.5
(-118)
O 2.5
(+145)
Benoit Paire
+283
+1.5
(-104)
U 2.5
(-178)

Moneyline Movements: None

Spread Movements: None

Total Sets Movements: None

Sportsbook Edge
+4.88%

Timofey Skatov Win Probability: 78.77%

Benoit Paire Win Probability: 26.11%

78.77%
26.11%

Tennis Betting Videos

Learn More About ATP Challenger Francavilla al Mare - R16 (Tennis)

The ATP Challenger Francavilla al Mare is a professional men's tennis tournament that is part of the ATP Challenger Tour, which serves as the second-highest tier of professional tennis competition after the main ATP Tour. The event is held annually in Francavilla al Mare, a coastal town in the Abruzzo region of Italy. It typically takes place on outdoor clay courts and is scheduled during the European clay-court swing, often in the spring, as players prepare for larger events like the Rome Masters and Roland Garros.

Overview of the Tournament

  • Surface: Outdoor clay courts – favoring players with endurance, strategic point construction, and a strong baseline game.

  • Draw Size: Typically includes a 32-player singles main draw, 32-player qualifying draw, and 16-team doubles draw.

  • Players: The tournament features a mix of rising stars, journeymen, and ATP Tour veterans seeking match play, ranking points, and prize money to improve or maintain their rankings.

  • Ranking Points: As a Challenger-level event, the winner usually receives 75 to 125 ATP ranking points depending on the tournament's classification in that year's Challenger hierarchy.

  • Importance: For up-and-coming players, strong performance here can lead to main draw entries in ATP 250 events or Grand Slam qualifiers.


How to Bet on the Francavilla al Mare Challenger

Betting on ATP Challenger events like Francavilla al Mare can offer opportunities due to less market efficiency compared to main ATP Tour events. Here’s how to approach betting on this tournament effectively:

1. Understand the Playing Conditions

  • Clay-court specialists usually perform well here. Look for players with a proven track record on clay, especially at the Challenger level.

  • Weather conditions can influence outcomes; slower conditions favor grinders and heavy topspin players.

2. Analyze Player Profiles

  • Match history: Focus on recent performances, especially on clay.

  • Fitness: Challenger players often play back-to-back weeks; fatigue can impact performance, especially on a physical surface like clay.

  • Motivation: Players returning from injury or looking to build ranking points may be more driven.

3. Betting Markets to Consider

  • Match winner: Most common market; be cautious with heavy favorites in early rounds.

  • Handicap betting (games or sets): Useful when a stronger player is expected to dominate or when you believe an underdog will keep it close.

  • Over/Under total games: Clay court matches tend to have longer rallies and more breaks; often valuable when backing overs.

  • Outright winner: Bet on a player to win the entire tournament—typically done before the event or early on at longer odds.

  • Set betting: Predict the exact scoreline (e.g., Player A wins 2-1) for higher risk/reward.

4. Use Statistical Modeling

  • For more serious bettors, using models that consider surface-specific ELO ratings, service and return stats, break point conversion, and recent form can uncover value in markets.

  • Challenger events often have weaker pricing models by sportsbooks, leading to more potential edge with sharp projections.

5. Live Betting Opportunities

  • Match momentum can swing quickly in Challengers. Watching live streams and betting in-play allows you to gauge player body language, conditions, and tactical adjustments.

  • Watch for slow starters or players known for strong comebacks on clay.

6. Market Inefficiencies

  • Challenger events are less scrutinized, so odds may not move as efficiently based on information like injuries or travel fatigue.

  • Monitoring news from local journalists, tournament social media, and pre-match interviews can provide valuable insights before markets adjust.

7. Bankroll Management

  • These tournaments can be volatile, especially in early rounds with younger or inconsistent players.

  • Maintain disciplined unit sizing and avoid chasing losses.


Conclusion

The ATP Challenger Francavilla al Mare is an important stop for clay-court players aiming to build momentum and rankings. From a betting perspective, it presents opportunities for sharp bettors who do their homework on form, surface performance, and match dynamics. Due to lower public and bookmaker attention compared to ATP Tour events, these tournaments often offer more pricing inefficiencies—ideal for bettors leveraging data, models, and informed judgment.

IPA 18.118.195.19

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