The 2023 Sun Bowl profiles as a rock fight in El Paso between two teams hit hard by transfers and opt-outs, and we offer our top Oregon State vs. Notre Dame prediction based on the best college football odds.
No. 19 Oregon State and No. 16 Notre Dame represent two teams that finished in the top 25 of the final College Football Playoff rankings. Though the Sun Bowl is just one of 10 matchups featuring such highly ranked teams, neither squad enters this showdown resembling the one that achieved that success throughout the regular season.
Oregon State experienced a mass exodus following head coach Jonathan Smith's announcement that he's taking the job at Michigan State.
As for Notre Dame, despite Marcus Freeman's best efforts to carry some momentum into 2024, the Fighting Irish also enter the Sun Bowl without many of the key players who helped them win nine games this season.
As part of our look at all college bowl game odds, here is our best Oregon State vs. Notre Dame prediction and our college football picks for Friday's Sun Bowl (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Oregon State vs. Notre Dame prediction: Sun Bowl
Is it possible to fade both sides? These teams bear only a passing resemblance to the ones that initially secured a berth in Friday's Sun Bowl, though I have appreciably less faith in these offenses in particular – both of which have been gutted by transfers and opt-outs.
Notre Dame's offense ranked in the top 10 in scoring and EPA/play in the regular season, but that unit is long gone. Nine starters have opted out of Friday's game – a list that includes sixth-year starter QB Sam Hartman, unanimous All-American tackle Joe Alt, star running back Audric Estime, three starting receivers, two other starting linemen, and a starting tight end.
In total, Notre Dame will be without 11 of its top 12 offensive players by snap count, which just about says it all. Even offensive coordinator Gerad Parker is already off to his head coaching gig at Troy.
Similarly, Jonathan Smith left his alma mater for Michigan State and brought six coaches and two players – star tight end Jack Velling and talented backup QB Aidan Chiles – with him to East Lansing. The Beavers will also be without starting QB DJ Uiagalelei, star rusher Damien Martinez, and even standout kicker Atticus Sappington for Friday's game.
New head coach Trent Bray is too busy recruiting to coach this game, but passing coordinator Kefense Hynson has already announced QB Ben Gulbranson as the Beavers' starter for the Sun Bowl. He'll bring experience under center after starting eight games in 202 2, though that team relied almost exclusively on the ground game – a tall task without Martinez.
Expect Oregon State to try to establish the run, anyway, against a Notre Dame defense that remains mostly intact after ranking as a top-10 unit by virtually any metric.
Star safety Xavier Watts, the winner of this year's Bronco Nagurski Award, will suit up after leading the nation in interceptions (seven). Fellow All-American nose tackle Howard Cross is playing, too, as he and rising star Rylie Mills anchor one of the best defensive lines in college football.
The Beavers will be without their top two tacklers in Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (106 tackles) and Akili Arnold (62) and a talented corner in Jermod McCoy (2 INTs), but those are the only losses for a group that ranked 27th in EPA/play and 33rd in scoring defense – even after facing Oregon and Washington over the final two weeks.
This settl es as a three-star play for two reasons: it's hard to know exactly what to expect with all the upheaval on both sides, and we're betting into a number five points worse than open. Hopefully you grabbed this one before all the chaos, but if not, the Under is still worth a small play just to make it watchable.
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Oregon State vs. Notre Dame best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 41.5 | Under 41.5 | Under 41.5 | Under 41.5 | Under 41.5 |
| -110 | -108 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
All five of our best sportsbooks are dealing this total at 41.5, which is down from an opening number of 46.5 before all the transfers and opt-outs turned this game upside down.
FanDuel, ever the outlier, is offering the best price at -108, though this may change by the time you place your bet. I'd strongly recommend checking out our best sportsbook promos to see which books have the best bonus offer before wagering on the 2023 Sun Bowl.
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Oregon State vs. Notre Dame odds
Oregon State vs. Notre Dame odds analysis
The total for this game opened at 46.5, at which point Notre Dame was dealing as a 10.5-point favorite. Then came the rash of transfers and opt-outs for both sides, predominantly on the offensive side of the ball, to drive both numbers down ahead of kickoff.
The spread and total have each seen significant movement across our best sports betting apps, which have since settled into relative uniformity on both numbers. Still, it always pays to shop around, and that's never truer than in the midst of college football bowl season.
Sun Bowl game info
- When: Friday, Dec. 29 at 2 p.m. ET
- Where: Sun Bowl Stadium, El Paso, TX
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: 55 degrees, 2-mph winds, 0% chance of precipitation
Oregon State-Notre Dame prediction made Wednesday at 1:30 a.m. ET.
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