The Denver Nuggets have won five in a row and will look to stay hot on a night during which LeBron James is set to make more history, and we're offering our top Nuggets vs. Lakers NBA player props based on the best NBA odds.
You have to go back to January 2007 to find the last time LeBron James scored fewer than 10 points in a game.
James needs only nine points to reach 40,000 for his career, so it's safe to say he'll get there Saturday when the Los Angeles Lakers host the Denver Nuggets at Crypto.com Arena.
Despite winning three of their last five, the Lakers have fallen behind the surging Golden State Warriors for the No. 10 seed in the Western Conference and the last spot in the Play-In Tournament.
Los Angeles is 21-9 at home, and it's won three straight there.
Meanwhile, Nikola Jokic and Co. own the No. 3 seed in the West behind an impressive 41-19 record. The Nuggets are 24-5 at home but just 17-14 on the road.
Denver is 2-0 against Los Angeles on the season and 6-3 over the last nine regular-season meetings. The Nuggets ride a five-game win streak into L.A., and they'll look to extend that streak by playing spoiler on James' big night.
Here are our best Nuggets vs. Lakers NBA player props and NBA picks (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Nuggets vs. Lakers NBA player props: Saturday
- LeBron James “other” method of scoring to reach 40,000 points (+370 via FanDuel) ???
- LeBron James Over 41.5 PRA (-105 via DraftKings) ???
- Nikola Jokic to record triple-double (+110 via bet365) ???
- Anthony Davis Over 40.5 PRA (-104 via FanDuel) ???
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Nuggets vs. Lakers props
How will James score his 40,000th point?
Our best sports betting sites offer this wager in a number of ways, but FanDuel offers us the best odds on a likely outcome.
James is averaging 2.2 triples per game this season, shooting a career-best 40.8% from beyond the arc. He's been ultra-efficient with the long ball, but he's attempting just 5.5 triples per game, his fewest since the 2017-18 season. The Nuggets allow the second-fewest 3-pointers per game, and James has averaged 1.7 triples over his last three home games against Denver. We'll rule out a 3-pointer for this method.
Meanwhile, Denver allows the ninth-fewest fastbreak points, and the Nuggets are above average in paint points allowed. It would be an appropriate homage to James' career for his 40,000th point to be a dunk, especially if it's his trademark one-armed windup.
However, we'll look to the method of scoring that James has used in each of his last three record-setting games. James reached 20,000 and 30,000 points on jumpers, and he broke the all-time scoring mark on a jumper as well.
The methods offered at FanDuel are layup, free throw, dunk, 3-pointer, and other. A 2-point jumper falls under the “other” category, and that's where we'll stake our wager.
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James has been stellar since returning from the All-Star break, averaging 30.8 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 9.5 dimes in four contests. He's posted at least 42 PRA in each of those games. In James' last three home games against Denver dating back to last season, he's posted PRA totals of 40, 41, and 43.
James understands the gravity of the moment, and he's been phenomenal in record-setting games. He posted 48 PRA when he broke Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's all-time scoring record, 44 PRA when he scored 30,000 points, and 42 PRA when he scored 20,000 points.
His team is in desperate need of a win, he's riding a heater, and he's closing in on a scoring milestone that's never been seen. Count on another big game from James tonight.
Jokic's assist line is set at 9.5 across our best sports betting apps with odds ranging from -120 to -140. The line is appropriate, but I'd feel much better taking it at -110.
Instead, we'll pivot to a Jokic triple-double wager with plus-money odds. This one is offered at even money at some of our best sportsbooks, but we can get it for +110 at bet365 for the most profitable odds.
Jokic has recorded at least 10 assists in 23 games this season, and he's posted a triple-double in 19 of them. If we're comfortable betting the Over on 9.5 assists, it only makes sense to take more profitable odds on the triple-double.
Jokic finished February with an average of 10.4 assists across 11 games, reaching double-digit assists in five contests. That includes four of his last five outings.
Jamal Murray sprained his right ankle Thursday against the Miami Heat, and he's questionable to play Saturday. If he's unavailable, this prop gets even more enticing.
Jokic has averaged 8.9 assists in games played with Murray and 10.3 when Murray is sidelined. Jokic has reached double-digit assists in six of 10 road games played without Murray. To sweeten the deal further, the Lakers allow the seventh-most assists to opponents this season.
Davis finished February with 40 points, 15 rebounds, and four assists against the Washington Wizards, and he averaged 42.5 PRA across 11 games in the month. On the season, Davis has averaged 41.4 PRA at home compared to 40.8 on the road, and he's reached 41 PRA in 32 of 57 games overall during the 2023-24 campaign.
Davis has played four home games against the Nuggets across the last three seasons. Not counting the game in which he played 17 minutes in December 2022, he's hit 41 PRA in two of his last three home games against the Nuggets. He posted 40 PRAs in the third.
Davis provided 44 PRA in his first home matchup with Denver this season, and he averaged 43.1 PRA in last season's Western Conference Finals. Davis has been great against Denver as of late, and we'll count on another strong performance Saturday.
Nuggets-Lakers NBA player props made Saturday at 9:05 a.m. ET.
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