The Miami Heat host the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday, as we target Jamal Murray, Bam Adebayo, and Michael Porter Jr. with our Nuggets vs. Heat NBA player props based on the best NBA odds.
The Heat and Nuggets meet tonight for the final time this season. The Nuggets won the first meeting 103-97 in Denver on Feb. 29. In that game, Michael Porter Jr. scored 30 and pulled down 11 rebounds to lead the Nuggets. Jamal Murray left the game early with a sprained ankle.
The Heat were led by Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler, who scored 22 and 21, respectively. Who has the edge on Wednesday?
To accompany our NBA player props and best bets for Wednesday, here are our best Nuggets vs. Heat NBA player props and NBA picks (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Nuggets vs. Heat NBA player prop predictions
- Jam al Murray Over 28.5 points + assists (-116 via bet365) ????
- Michael Porter Jr. Under 2.5 made three-pointers (-102 via FanDuel) ???
- Bam Adebayo Under 19.5 points (-110 via DraftKings) ???
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Nuggets vs. Heat player props
Murray has been stuffing the stat sheet since injuring his ankle on Feb. 29 against the Heat. He's averaging 26.8 points and 9.4 assists per game during the previous five games, scoring 26 and setting up 12 against the Toronto Raptors on Sunday.
The Heat have one of the best defenses in the league, allowing just 109.9 points per game. But considering Murray's hot recent play, we don't expect the defense to nullify his threat. In the first meeting betw een these two teams, Murray was 2-of-3 from deep in just 14 minutes, so he should return to optimal productivity with a full 35+ minutes.
Every major sportsbook has this total listed at the same number. bet365 has offers the best value at -116.
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Porter Jr. averages 2.7 made 3-pointers per game, but the Heat are 11th in the league in opponent 3-point percentage. Porter Jr. has hit over 2.5 three-pointers in just one of his last three games, in which he made three.
The -102 price is what makes the under so valuable , though. The price for Porter Jr. to go over is no shorter than -125 at our best sports betting sites.
That implies a 55.56% chance of hitting at least three 3-pointers. Which, in this game, seems high.
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The price for this prop ranges from -110 to -123 at our best sports betting apps. Considering how Adebayo has played in recent games, the value DraftKings offers is too good to pass up.
Adebayo has been held under 19 points in his last four games. In their other meeting this season, he scored 22 against the Nuggets, but he also went 6-of-6 from the free throw line. It's doubtful the 76.1% free throw shooter will have a performance like that again tonight.
The Nuggets rank 17th in the league in points allowed in the paint per game. Therefore, with all things equal, we expect Adebayo to stretch his streak to five consecutive games below his season average tonight.
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Nuggets vs. Heat NBA player props, made Wednesday at 10:29 a.m. ET.
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