The NBA returns after a brief hiatus for last week's All-Star break, and a cross conference clash between the Denver Nuggets and the Cleveland Cavaliers is on deck for Thursday. Read on for our Nuggets vs. Cavaliers NBA picks based on the best NBA odds.
Now that the All-Star break has come and gone, it's time for most NBA teams to kick it into high gear over the next several weeks to close out the regular season. Both the Nuggets and Cavaliers have put themselves in good position entering the home stretch, but will be playing for the best seeding possible.
Denver is atop the Western Conference standings with a 41-18 record, while Nikola Jokic is the betting favorite to win his third MVP in a row. Cleveland (38-23) is sitting fourth in the East, which would be good enough to have home-court advantage in the opening round. The Cavs are a small favorite entering Thursday&# 39;s tilt.
Here is our best Nuggets vs. Cavaliers NBA pick (odds via PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
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Nuggets vs. Cavaliers pick
On the surface, betting on the fourth-best team in the East to defeat the Western Conference front-runner seems a bit foolish, especially considering how stacked the West is. But Cleveland has been dominant at home, and might just be suited to handle Jokic and Co.
Let's start with the value of home court. The Cavaliers are 25-6 when playing inside Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse this season. They're tied for the best cover rate in the league at home, going 20-10-1 against the spread in Cleveland this season.
This is more than based on trends, however. Jokic might be the MVP favorite while avera ging a triple-double, but opposing teams with size tend to make life a little bit more difficult for the Denver big man. At least as much as one team can.
Enter the Cavs, who start both Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley in the frontcourt. Cleveland ranks third in the league in points per possession allowed, and is second in rim defense by allowing a 63% clip on close-range shots. Jokic and the Nuggets will certainly have to work for their offensive production.
Since we project this spread north of one possession, we would be comfortable laying up to 2.5 points with the home favorite. Lines are super efficient at this point in the NBA season, but this is a four-star pick based on the combination of Cleveland's home success and its overwhelming presence on the defensive end.
Nuggets vs. Cavaliers best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
| -2 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -2 |
| -115 | -110 | -105 | -110 | -110 |
Only two of our five top-rated sportsbooks are currently offering a 2-point spread. A Cleveland bettor would have to eat -115 juice at DraftKings Sportsbook, so we prefer to take the standard -110 offering at PointsBet. This should tell you where this line is going.
If you're unable to get 2 or 2.5 before tipoff, we prefer waiting for an opportunity to bet on the Cavs during the game. The Nuggets lead the league in net rating (13.1) in the opening quarter, per the advanced stats at NBA.com, and could jump out to an early lead.
Nuggets vs. Cavaliers odds
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Nuggets vs. Cavaliers odds analysis
Betting lines for Thursday's slate have been out since Monday, but the spread for this game hasn't moved t oo much. The Cavaliers opened as 2-point favorites, but are now laying 2.5 at most of our top-rated sportsbooks.
The total started at 221.5 and has since ticked up to 223 at most shops. BetMGM is the best place for Over bettors with its line of 222.5, while PointsBet is the preferred destination for Under tickets with its total of 223.5.
Entering Thursday's matchup, Denver is 33-26 against the spread and 28-30-1 to the Over. The Cavaliers are 32-26-3 ATS and 33-28 to the Under.
Nuggets vs. Cavaliers game info
- Date: Thursday, Feb. 23, 7 p.m. ET
- TV: NBA League Pass
- Location: Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, OH
Nuggets-Cavaliers pick made 2/23/2023 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
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