Our Notre Dame vs. North Carolina prediction based on the best college basketball odds expects a low-scoring game in Chapel Hill.
While North Carolina remains among the nation's top teams, it's March Madness odds have been slipping at our best sports betting sites. The Tar Heels still rank No. 7 in the AP Poll, but they've been struggling with consistency recently against unranked opponents.
Notre Dame is no slouch on defense despite its lackluster season (12-17), and Micah Shrewsberry's team plays a similar style to that of Virginia. The Fighting Irish trot out a slow offense and a feisty defense that should keep this one low-scoring against the Tar Heels.
To complement our college basketball best bets for Tuesday, here is our best Notre Dame vs. North Carolina prediction and our college basketball picks (odds via our best M arch Madness betting sites; Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Notre Dame vs. North Carolina prediction
Best odds: -110 via DraftKings
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While nobody is pounding the table for Notre Dame in 2023-24, the Fighting Irish provide an interesting matchup against North Carolina.
They're ranked 25th in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom, and the team is holding opponents to just 65.4 points per game while sitting 23rd in the country. The defense is top 65 in both field-goal percentage (41.7%) and 2-point percentage (46.7%), and it only allows opponents to shoot 32.8% from deep.
Between RJ Davis and Armando Bacot, the Tar Heels should be able to score enough for a decisive win, but not enough to hurt the Under, especially with DraftKings offering the game total at 139. North Carolina is one of the best teams in the country, but its offense lags behind its defense, ranking 27th in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Against a team like the Irish who limit possessions with pace, sitting 336th in adjusted tempo, the Tar Heels will get fewer opportunities-like they did against Virginia while scoring only 54 points. More importantly, the Irish put out one of the worst offenses in college basketball and should struggle.
North Carolina ranks sixth in adjusted defensive efficiency and first in field-goal percentage allowed in ACC games (39.8%) and 3-point percentage allowed (30.4%). That doesn't bode well for a Notre Dame offense that's scoring the 10th fewest points in the country (63.6) and ranks 263rd in adjusted offensive efficiency.
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Notre Dame vs. North Carolina best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 139 | Under 138.5 | Under 138.5 | Under 138 | Under 138 |
| -110 | -105 | -115 | -110 | -110 |
All of our best sports betting apps are on a similar page with a low game total, but DraftKings offers the best value with that extra half point. The odds at -110 give us an implied probability of 52.38%, according to our odds calculator). With RJ Davis' ability to explode on any given night, that half point provides more value than FanDuel's line of -105.
While Notre Dame's slow and inconsistent offense gives the Under plenty of value, we wouldn't bet that side if the game total drops below 138. The Tar Heels are 3-0 to the Under in their last three games, including against Virginia with a total of just 132.
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Notre Dame vs. North Carolina odds
Notre Dame vs. North Carolina odds analysis
North Carolina opened as a 14.5- to 15.5-point home favorite vs. Notre Dame at our best sports betting sites, with very little line movement since. On one end, FanDuel is offering the Tar Heels -14.5 at -120, while BetMGM has Hubert Davis' squad at -15.5 for -105. North Carolina and Notre Dame are both 16-13 against the spread in 2023-24
The game total opened as low as 137.5, with it slowly coming up to between 138 and 139 at our  ;best sportsbooks. DraftKings stands out for posting the highest total at 139. The Tar Heels are 15-13-1 to the Under this season, while the Fighting Irish are 19-10.
Notre Dame vs. North Carolina game info
- When: Tuesday, March 5 at 7:00 p.m. ET
- Where: Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC
- How to watch: ACC Network
Notre Dame-North Carolina prediction made Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. ET.
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