The No. 2 overall seed Houston Cougars begin their championship run with a matchup against the No. 16-seed Northern Kentucky Norse. Read on for our Northern Kentucky vs. Houston prediction based on the top NCAAB odds.
Northern Kentucky (22-12, 14-6) avenged last year's one-point loss in the Horizon League championship game and earned its third conference tournament championship since 2019. The Norse's previous two conference tournament titles came as the league's No. 2 seed, but this year's win as the No. 4 seed matched their lowest seed while winning the championship since 2017.
Houston (31-3, 17-1) has won 30-plus games in back-to-back seasons for the first time since the Phi Slama Jama era of 1982-83 and 1983-84, when the team finished as national runner-up in both seasons. However, its position as the No. 2 overall seed over Kansas was highly criticized as t he Cougars went 7-2 in Quad 1 games, while the Jayhawks led all of Division I with 17 Quad 1 wins (17-7). Nevertheless, Houston is the consensus favorite among all sportsbooks to cut down the nets entering the tournament.
Here is our best Northern Kentucky vs. Houston prediction (odds via FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Northern Kentucky vs. Houston odds
Northern Kentucky vs. Houston prediction
Northern Kentucky has been vulnerable on the offensive glass all season, as the Norse rank 333rd in offensive rebounding percentage allowed (32.8%). However, despite facing a Houston team that ranks fourth nationally in offensive rebounding, these teams play at a slow enough tempo that both will have difficulty lighting up the scoreboard.
Houston and Northern Kentucky rank 342nd or worse in tempo, per S hotQuality. The Norse have used their extended zone to frustrate opponents all season, ranking second nationally in effective field goal percentage defense. In addition, both teams are disruptive defensively, forcing turnovers at top-22 rates, per KenPom.
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Houston head coach Kelvin Sampson will not be happy with the 75 points his team allowed to Memphis in the AAC championship game, the second-most the Cougars have allowed all season. Thus, look for a much more disciplined effort on the defensive end from a Houston team that ranked in the top four in Division I in adjusted defensive efficiency, effective field goal p ercentage defense, 3-point percentage allowed, and 2-point percentage allowed.
This becomes a more solid four-star play if Houston's leading scorer Marcus Sasser (17.1 points per game) is ruled out of this game. The AAC Player of the Year missed the conference championship game with a groin injury. As the team's leading 3-point shooter at 38.3%, his ability to stretch the floor is a big reason the Cougars scored in the 75th percentile against zone defense despite facing it among the most of any D-I team (95th percentile), per Synergy.
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Northern Kentucky vs. Houston best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 122.5 | Under 122.5 | Under 122.5 | Under 122.5 | 122.5 |
| -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
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DraftKings is the only sportsbook offering a total as high as 123, so it is our go-to sportsbook despite having to pay slightly extra in juice. This number would likely come down some if Sasser were to be ruled out, so we are jumping on this line early in hopes of earning some closing line value.
Northern Kentucky vs. Houston odds analysis
Houston opened as a consensus 19.5-point favorite and lowered to a consensus line of -18.5 by Thursday afternoon. However, roughly 55% of spread bets have gone on Houston.
The consensus opening Over/Under was 122.5, and any line movement to this point has gone toward the Over, with totals as high as 123 at DraftKings. There was good two-way action throughout the week but bettors have sided more strongly with the Over as of Thursday afternoon with 61% of the betting action on that side.
Northern Kentucky vs. Houston game info
- Date: Thursday, March 16, 9:20 p.m. ET
- TV: TNT
- Location: Legacy Arena at BJCC, Birmingham, AL
Northern Kentucky-Houston pick made 3/14/2023 at 6:14 a.m. ET.
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