Arguably the best rivalry in college basketball takes place Saturday as Duke hosts UNC, and we offer our best North Carolina vs. Duke prediction based on the best college basketball odds.
North Carolina (24-6, 16-3 ACC) has won five consecutive games entering this matchup, four of which were by nine or more points. The Tar Heels' recent hot streak allowed them to capture at least a share of the ACC regular season title, and would win it outright with a victory at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
Duke (24-6, 15-4 ACC) has won eight of nine games coming into the weekend, and a victory over the rival Tar Heels would ensure a share of the conference regular season championship.
This is the second straight time these teams have met as AP top-10 foes, and the first regular-season meeting was the first top-10 matchup in this rivalry since the 2019 ACC Tournament semifinals. UNC won the f irst meeting at home 93-84.
This matchup will help solidify the ACC odds for next week's conference tournament.
To accompany our college basketball player props and best bets for Saturday, here is our best North Carolina vs. Duke prediction and our college basketball picks (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
North Carolina vs. Duke prediction
Best odds: -110 via bet365
UNC last swept the two regular-season meetings against Duke in 2021 and has a great chance to do so again.
Duke is a decent-sized favorite in this matchup and is arguably playing much better basketball than UNC of late, given the two teams' results against common opponents. UNC beat Miami, Virginia, and NC State within the last two weeks by a combined 23 points, and Duke beat the same three o pponents within the previous three weeks by a combined 69 points. The smallest margin of victory in those games was 15 points.
However, the Tar Heels have a higher ceiling, as evidenced by their 33-point thrashing of a Notre Dame team that had entered Tuesday's matchup off upsets of Wake Forest and Clemson.
Duke seemingly had an edge over UNC in their first meetings, as the Tar Heels entered at that time allowing the third-highest open 3-point rate in ACC play, per ShotQuality. UNC held Duke to 5-for-19 shooting (26.3%) from beyond the arc in that game. It also won the turnover battle 11-5 and shot 25 free throws to Duke's 11.
The Blue Devils had difficulty stopping the dribble penetration of Elliot Cadeau and RJ Davis, and there is nothing to suggest head coach Jon Scheyer has an answer this time around.
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North Carolina vs. Duke best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +4.5 | +4.5 | +4.5 | OFF | +4.5 |
| -110 | -110 | -115 | OFF | -110 |
UNC backers do not have much to choose from, as all of our top sports betting sites have the Tar Heels as 4.5-point underdogs. BetMGM is the obvious shop to avoid given its slightly higher juice, and it will be interesting to see if that is the first of our best sports betting sites to move to +4 or lower.
Duke is 18-1 SU in its last 19 conference home games, and plenty of bettors will likely back the Blue Devils in the first half when those lines become available, as they have led at the half in nine consecutive games.
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North Carolina vs. Duke odds
North Carolina vs. Duke odds analysis
The only reported line movement thus far has been at DraftKings and BetRivers. DraftKings opened at -4 (-115 to back Duke) and moved to -4.5 within the first hour. BetRivers actually opened at -4.5 and briefly went to -4 before returning to the original number. North Carolina is 17-13 ATS, while Duke is an even more profitable 18-11-1 against the number.
The O/U ranges from as low as 149.5 at BetMGM and BetRivers to as high as 150.5 at FanDuel. The total at FanDuel initially plummeted from 151.5 to 149.5 before rebounding to 150.5. Similarly, early betting act ion at DraftKings was on the Under, as the total dropped from 151 to 149.5, then settled at 150 overnight.
The Under has cashed in 18 of Duke's 30 games, while UNC has an O/U record of 13-16-1.
North Carolina vs. Duke game info
- When: Saturday, March 9 at 6:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, North Carolina
- How to watch: ESPN
UNC-Duke prediction made Friday at 9:48 p.m. ET.
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