North Carolina (UNC) vs. Duke Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 2-4-2023

North Carolina and Duke will meet for a rare matchup between unranked teams in college basketball’s biggest rivalry. The Tar Heels picked up an 81-77 win over the Blue Devils in last year’s Final Four semifinal game in New Orleans, as there were 18 lead changes and 12 ties. These teams have split their last 100 meetings, with North Carolina holding a 143-115 edge in the all-time series.

North Carolina was unable to defend its run to last year’s national title game early this season, losing four straight games in late November/early December. The Tar Heels opened conference play with an 80-72 loss at Virginia Tech, but they have been much better since then. They have won 10 of their last 13 games, including a four-game winning streak against Louisville, Boston College, NC State and Syracuse. North Carolina had its hot streak snapped in a 65-64 setback against Pittsburgh on Wednesday, as Jamarius Burton made the game-winning free throws with three seconds remaining. North Carolina had its final shot attempt blocked as time expired.

The Tar Heels are a strong offensive team, ranked No. 29 in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency ratings and No. 18 turnover rate. Their primary issue has been from the perimeter, as they are ranked No. 304 in 3-point percentage (31.1). They are shooting much better from inside the arc, knocking down 52.5% of their 2-pointers. North Carolina is facing a Duke defense that is No. 35 in effective field goal percentage. The Tar Heels are led by veteran Armando Bacot, who is averaging 17.7 points and 11.4 rebounds. This will be a tough matchup for him, as the Blue Devils have the second-tallest roster in the country.

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