NL Rookie of the Year race: Updated odds, predictions, picks, favorites on June 27

Hard as it is to believe, we're nearly halfway through the 2023 MLB season. The sample size isn't so small now, meaning we can say with a bit more confidence which breakouts are for real and which slow starts may not be much of a fluke after all. The landscape has shifted quite a bit over the past few weeks – Elly De La Cruz (and Matt McLain) arrived on the scene in a big way, Francisco Alvarez has turned it in and a group of promising young arms from Eury Perez to Andrew Abbott to Bobby Miller are off to historic starts – and the awards race markets have responded accordingly.

So, just like we did at the beginning of June, let's celebrate the start of June with a look at how the past month has impacted the AL MVP odds over at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Updated NL Rookie of the Year odds as of Tuesday, June 27

Corbin Carroll -450 Elly De La Cruz +400 Eury Perez +4000
Matt McLain +5000 Andrew Abbott +5500 Francisco Alvarez +6000
Bobby Miller +7000 James Outman +7000 Jordan Walker +7500
Kodai Senga +7500 Spencer Steer +7500 Brett Baty +8000

NL Rookie of the Year race: Takeaways and best bets

Look, this is a two-man race, and for good reason – there simply aren't any candidates that have the same kind of upside and power/speed ability that De La Cruz and Carroll have. Outman has struggled badly since his great April, Alvarez has major swing and miss issues and won't play every day as a catcher, Miller and Abbott are regressing a bit after hot starts while Perez is staring at an eventual shut-down as the Miami Marlins try to keep him fresh. They're closer to winning NL MVP than they are to being caught by a fellow rookie.

So, in a two-man race why not go with the guy with the much better odds, especially when he happens to be the literal fastest man in baseball – at 6'5, with record-breaking exit velocities? There's not much that De La Cruz can't do on a baseball field, and while his strikeout and ground ball rates remain a concern, his raw physical ability is so remarkable that it really might not matter. When he does make contact, good things almost always happen, and he's so fast that he can turn grounders into extra-base hits. Carroll has a bit of a ground-ball problem himself and should see his slugging numbers regress a bit as the season goes on, which could create an opportunity for De La Cruz despite the fact that he's operating out of a two-month hole.

I really tried to make an argument for someone else but couldn't get there. Miller was off to an incredible start but has put up two clunkers in a row to close June. Abbott has gotten wildly lucky, even if his scoreless innings streak was undoubtedly impressive. Outman and Walker are here more on reputation than actual production at this point. Perez is the only other possibility, and for as incredible as he's been, Miami has already come out and said that the top prospect is going to be on an innings count as he racks up a workload his arm has never felt before. Even if the Marlins complete their unlikely march to the postseason, a shutdown almost certainly nixes Perez's chances at taking home the hardware. I'd much prefer De La Cruz to Carroll at odds, but he's still the betting favorite for very good reason.

  
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