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Stars win (-130)
Going back to the well on the Stars for potentially the last time in 2022-2023. They just have to be due. Before this series, the Stars had not lost consecutive games since March 16th. From that date until the start of this series, the Stars were 9-0 after a loss with a +20 goal differential in those games. That is an average win by 2.22 goals in games following a loss. Dallas has been resilient all season long and their season depends on them being resilient once again.
Granted, being due for the sake of being due is not reason enough to take a team to win outright. But they have not been dominated as much as the series record indicates. As mentioned, they went beyond regulation in Games 1 and 2. In Game 3, they more than doubled up the Golden Knights on shots on goal 34-16 including 23-6 after the first period. The Stars are not far away.