NHL picks 2022: Norris Trophy odds, predictions, favorites after first month

We're a little over a month into the 2022-23 NHL season and the Norris Trophy race should be interesting, at least more so than the Hart Trophy race. The award goes to the top defenseman in the NHL and Colorado Avalanche D Cale Makar is your reigning winner. He's also the reigning Conn Smythe winner. Anyway, we're going to look at the odds on DraftKings Sportsbook to win the Norris Trophy this season on Nov. 15.

Norris Trophy odds: Nov. 15

After the first month or so, the race is pretty clearly among 4-5 defensemen. Makar has the fast track and has recency bias on his side. The Avalanche aren't nearly as good as they were last season, which could hurt Makar's case in the end. Entering Tuesday, he ranks third in points among defensemen at 18 on three goals and 15 assists. Makar ranks second in terms of ice time per game at just over 26:00 and skates in all situations. So long as the Avs are toward the top of the standings and one of the better defensive teams, Makar will be at the top of the board.

Adam Fox of the New York Rangers has a slight lead over Makar in points, though less of a case in overall impact at both ends. Most of Fox's points have come at even-strength, which could help his case moving forward. If Fox starts producing more on the power play, it could boon his point total a bit, one that's already second in the NHL.

Further down the board is where things get interesting.

Erik Karlsson is +1200 to win the award and looks like the Karlsson of old. The Sharks aren't a complete disaster and Karlsson has a chance to lead all defensemen in points with 10 goals and 12 assists through 17 games. The one issue with Karlsson is he likely won't beat out some of the other top defensemen in terms of points, at least not by a wide margin. If that's the case, it'll come down to play in all ends, which is tough to argue in Karlsson's favor.

Rasmus Dahlin will suffer from the same issues as Karlsson. Dahlin should put up a ton of points on an improved Buffalo Sabres team. The Sabres may compete for a playoff spot but aren't making huge strives defensively. Dahlin has been elite on the PP and as a shot generator. Other than that, his overall game still needs work.

Three other defensemen I'd keep an eye on include Boston Bruins' Hampus Lindholm (+3000), Dallas Stars' Miro Heiskanen (+1600) and New Jersey Devils' Dougie Hamilton (+3500). Hamilton in particular feels like a good long-shot bet with the Devils in first place in the Metro Division and much improved. New Jersey drives offensive play, which has led to fewer scoring chances on the other end. Hamilton will play a ton, in all situations, is an elite shot generator and power-play QB.

  
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